Sani Vs el-Rufai And 2027 Clash

The predicted signs of clash between Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna State and his predecessor, Mallam Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai, was bound to happen. When the former held a town hall meeting in Kaduna sometime in March 2024, where he unveiled the financial dilemma facing the state, it marked the commencement of a strained relationship that was about to go sour.

Before the completion of el-Rufai’s eight-year in the corridors of power, the burden of foreign loans had ballooned from over $200 million to over $500 million, with the $350 million obtained by the former administration as the biggest chunk of the total sum. Apart from the $350 million loans, there was also another $31 million that turned Kaduna into a state run by loans. In a bid to actually unveil the financial deals that rocked the state under the immediate past government, the Kaduna State House of Assembly initiated a probe aimed at beaming searchlight on the alleged financial malfeasance that exposed that was the highpoint of the past government.

Pandora Box

The lawmakers’ report was more of a Pandora box that exposed the alleged corruption hidden from the public purview. In summary, the lawmakers accused officials of the past administration of pilfering nearly N500 billion. Instead of coming out strongly to debunk all allegations as contained in the lawmakers’ report, officials of the former administration under the aegis of Former Commissioners Under el-Rufai-led Administration simply waved aside the allegations, describing the entire report as deliberately skewed to achieve an expected objective of nailing the immediate past government.

Subterranean efforts were embarked upon to resolve what insiders described as “crippling unquietness” between the governor and his predecessor, as it was obvious that the steeping storm of 2024 may soon trigger a round of verbal warfare between the past and the present. The conference on strengthening democracy in Nigeria that took place in Abuja, penultimate Monday, provided a platform for the commencement of hostilities. Criticisms against the Bola Ahmed-led government became a recurring focus of politicians who lost out ahead and after the 2023 presidential poll.

el-Rufai, whose ministerial ambition had gone up in flames, following security fears over his screening as minister, was the first to fire the salvo. In his words: “I no longer recognise the APC. No party organ has met in two years, no caucus, no NEC, nothing. You don’t even know if it is a one-man show; it’s a zero-man show.”

The speech of the former Kaduna governor drew the attention of the public. In a reaction to his comments, one of the presidential aides, Daniel Bwala, advised him to abandon the bandwagon of critics and join the Tinubu-led government in reversing the misfortunes of the country brought by the past government.

The Duo Disagree

In what was seen as a subtle response to his predecessor on Monday, Governor Sani, in a television interview, declared, “I can say it was really unfortunate, because some of them were even calling for people to come out and take laws into their hands, oppose the government in a way that I feel is undemocratic. Of course, I also want to make it clear here that if you ask me, when a democratic dispensation, we have virtually just two-and-a-half years until the next election. Any politician who feels he is popular or he can defeat Bola Ahmed Tinubu or APC – I think they need to go and work very hard and present themselves in the next election, which will be in 2027.”

Not allowing his successor to have the last word, the former governor took to his official Facebook page –@NasirEl-Rufai- on Tuesday to carpet the governor for demonstrating conditional loyalty to President Tinubu, pointing out that Kaduna State had received N150 billion in reimbursements, interventions and grants from Tinubu in the past.

Rallying For 2027

The seeming disagreement between Senator Sani and his predecessor is tied to the undercurrents that are to play out in the next general elections. If el-Rufai is to make a headway in 2027, he needs to put out the smoke threatening his political relevance in Kaduna. With two of his top aides arraigned in court, it is becoming too clear that the lion’s lair can’t be hidden for too long. If the former governor must survive and be on top of the political game, he must rally his war horses to battle.

Media spin masters are beginning to construe the clash as negatively impacting on good governance. This is farther from the truth. Top officials of the previous government are becoming too fearful that the end game is about to be reached. Having lost out in the centre, el-Rufai sees the state as the only viable platform in getting back his dwindling relevance. Ahead of the 2027 polls, el-Rufai is working hard to recreate the magic wand of 2015 where, along with others, he achieved the biggest political upset in defeating an incumbent administration, then headed by President Goodluck Jonathan.

There are many battles ahead for both Sani and el-Rufai. The latter may have secured a leading position in reminding the masses of the raging poverty plaguing the country. However, the truth is that el-Rufai and his group can’t be insulated from blame over the current state of the nation. His footprints in Kaduna State may turn out to be his albatross. Surely, el-Rufai may win some of the battles, but winning the 2027 war could turn out an obvious impossibility in the long-run. Nigerians are not in a hurry to forget what he did as governor between 2015 and 2023. Skilled in propaganda machinery, those who are desirous of defeating him must be prepared to be a step ahead of him in the battle to control public perception than reality. Considering the nature of the Nigerian media and abundance of spin masters, the battles for 2027 could turn out unpredictable.