Ahead of the Anambra State governorship election scheduled for November 8, 2025, an election observer, Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) has expressed concerns over insecurity and logistics delays.
These were some of the issues in a report presented by KDI titled “The Early Warning: Assessing pre-election security risk ahead of the 2025 Anambra off-cycle Governorship Election”.
KDI’s executive director, Bukola Idowu, said the election takes place in a complex socio-political environment. Election Security Risk Assessment (ESRA) equips electoral stakeholders—including INEC- and was deployed to comprehensively diagnose potential threats to safe, credible and inclusive elections.
According to the report, 15 local government areas of Anambra State are ranked high risk in terms of hotspots for violence, based on some past and current factors: historical patterns, socio-economic stressors, political dynamics, security conditions and community tensions.
The LGAs include Awka South, Ogbaru, Onitsha North, Anaocha, Ekwusigo, Idemili North, Idemili South, Nnewi North, Oyi, Orumba North, Orumba South, Anambra East, Awka North, Ayamelum and Dunukofia.
The ESRA approach situates elections within broader societal processes, recognising that governance, socio-economic conditions, security environments, and information dynamics collectively shape electoral outcomes. The environment is shaped by historical electoral violence, heightened political competition and evolving security dynamics.
Idowu also said KDI recognises the interplay of structural and situational security agencies, political actors, civil society, media, and local communities, with tools and factors that could influence electoral integrity, and the Election Security Risk Assessment to anticipate, prevent, and respond to risks in real time.
According to him, by contrast, in 2025, while incidents of violence remain high, the enforcement of separatist directives is inconsistent, less coordinated, and often challenges election security.
This has resulted in fewer mass-casualty events but has not diminished the frequency of politically linked attacks, kidnappings, and targeted killings.
This has resulted in fewer mass casualty events but has not increased electoral participation and undermined confidence in the democratic process.
However, he warned the electorates and other players before, during, and after the election to be wary of the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI), generated pictures, videos and broadcasts, including announcements of results, posts, inflammatory statements, fake victory speeches, and automated news articles, and that there are strong tendencies to create confusion and violence with the use of AI.
He said other past elections should serve as eye-openers, as digital platforms were strategically exploited, including in the past election. He added that urban local governments like Onitsha and Awka, which have high online penetration, are at risk; hence, digital manipulation is a high-probability and high-impact threat.
He also spoke about how misinformation and disinformation are certainly going to happen.
He said: “Political violence is a persistent shadow: Anambra’s electoral history remains marred by episodes of violence, shaping public perception and undermining confidence in peaceful democratic competition.
“Violence is escalating beyond elections: Compared to 2021, the current situation is deeply woven into the political space, creating risks that extend beyond the election environment, revealing a broader rise in violence. Non-electoral violence has become day.
“Political rivalry is tilting toward resentment: Power struggles are intensifying, with a strong likelihood that rivalries could spiral into resentment unless campaign communication is deliberately managed to reduce tension,” he said.
