Economist Projects 4.5% GDP Growth For Nigeria In 2026

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has projected a cautious optimism for Nigeria’s economy in 2026, expecting a transition from stabilisation to growth.

The chief executive officer of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf stated that “GDP growth is projected between 4.0 and 4.5 per cent, supported by continued moderation in inflation and stronger non-oil sector performance.

“Moderating inflation should strengthen domestic demand and create room for gradual monetary easing, potentially lowering interest rates and stimulating private investment. Services, especially telecommunications, finance, construction, real estate and trade will remain the primary growth engine.”

Yusuf anticipated a positive outlook for the capital market, with the potential listing of Dangote Refinery expected to deepen market liquidity and attract investments, saying policy credibility remains strong, reinforcing investor confidence and capital inflows.

He, however, noted that, despite the improving trajectory, several downside risks persist: security challenges, oil price and production volatility, structural constraints, debt and fiscal pressures, external headwinds, pre-election pressures and pushback on tax reforms.

He pointed out that, “overall, 2025 laid a solid foundation of macroeconomic stability. The outlook for 2026 is reassuring, with expectations of stronger growth, easing inflation, improving investor confidence and a gradual shift toward more inclusive expansion.

“If reform momentum is sustained and security challenges are effectively addressed, 2026 could mark the beginning of a more robust growth phase with tangible improvements in living standards.”

Year 2025, Yusuf explained, marked a significant turning point in Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory following the turbulence associated with the early phase of reforms.

According to him, exchange-rate stability emerged as the most visible achievement, with the naira largely trading within the N1,440 to N1,500 per dollar band. Periodic marginal appreciation strengthened business confidence, eased imported inflation and restored predictability to pricing, contracting and investment planning.

He disclosed that, “inflation decelerated sharply from 24.48 percent in January to about 14.45 percent by November 2025. The slowdown was supported by currency stability, easing logistics pressures and improving supply conditions. Several food items and imported consumer goods recorded outright price declines, contributing to improved consumer sentiment and reduced price volatility.

“Business confidence strengthened materially. The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Index remained positive for most of the year, reflecting improved investor perception and a gradual recovery in corporate profitability. Many firms that posted losses in 2024 returned to profit in 2025, underscoring the stabilisation gains.”

He also said, “despite macroeconomic stabilisation, federal fiscal performance remained weak. Debt-service obligations continued to constrain fiscal space, undermining budget execution. Revenue underperformance persisted, largely reflecting sub-optimal oil sector performance.”