Fear Of Violence Could Dampen Voters High Morale In 2027 – Yiaga Study

A survey conducted by Yiaga Africa has revealed that there is a firm voting intention for the 2027 general election, but security (violence) will threaten voter turnout.

The report of Yiaga Africa’s first round of national surveys, conducted between December 1 and 5, 2025, revealed a strong commitment among voters to participate in the 2027 elections and significant concerns about security and the efficiency of INEC.

Findings indicated that 77% are likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 general election, indicating a high interest in voting. However, this high interest in voting is challenged by pervasive security fears, as 42% of respondents cite fear of violence as their primary barrier to participation.

The findings further demonstrated that northern Nigeria showed the highest voting likelihood but faces severe security challenges.

“The challenge for 2027 is ensuring that the 77% who want to vote can actually do so safely and with confidence in the process. Security, quality of candidates and economic conditions drive voting choices.

“Security concerns (21%) and quality of candidates (21%) emerged as the dominant factors influencing voting intentions, followed by economic conditions (17%).

This suggests voters are primarily concerned with safety, leadership competence, and financial well-being rather than partisan loyalty or identity politics.

“The fact that Nigerians increasingly vote for candidates rather than parties imposes an obligation on political parties to conduct the 2027 nomination process with transparency, integrity, and without manipulation or excessive commercialisation.

“While most Nigerians believe their vote can influence election outcomes (76%), confidence in INEC’s ability to conduct credible elections remains mixed. Only 45% express confidence in INEC, while 34% lack confidence in it. Distrust in INEC is prevalent in southern Nigeria, particularly in the South-South and South-East regions, compared to the high trust levels in the north.

“Despite efforts by the National Assembly and INEC to undertake electoral reforms, 76% of Nigerians are unaware of recent electoral reforms. However, among those aware of electoral reforms, 64% report increased voting confidence, which indicates that electoral reforms deliver results. However, these reforms are undermined by significant communication failures.

“This disconnect presents a critical civic engagement opportunity ahead of 2027, requiring strategic investments to popularise and communicate ongoing reforms being implemented by INEC and the National Assembly,” the survey stated.

The study recommended the deployment of comprehensive election security frameworks in high-risk zones to neutralise early warning threats ahead of party congresses and primaries, and to establish community-based security approaches that leverage local leadership.

It requested that INEC improve the integrity and accuracy of the voter register through the timely revalidation of voter registration records and the cleanup of the voter register, and to conduct targeted confidence-building initiatives in the South-East and South-South zones, as well as to popularise electoral reforms designed to enhance the integrity of the electoral process.

The study urged political parties to foster the emergence of high-quality candidates through the conduct of transparent, accountable, and credible party primaries, as well as issue-based campaigns that address voter priorities, including security, the economy, and governance.

It urged civil society to focus voter mobilisation on youth, women, and low-income groups, who tend to show lower engagement, and to provide citizens with oversight of candidate nomination processes in the 2027 elections.