Nigeria-China Crude Trade To Expand After Venezuela’s Predicted Trade Plunge

Nigeria and China’s crude oil trade is set to expand as Venezuela’s import suffers the biggest disruptions.

China is expected to witness a plunge in oil imports from Venezuela in February, as the now month-long U.S. blockade has prevented many China-bound cargoes from leaving Venezuelan waters.

Deliveries of crude and fuel oil from Venezuela to China in February are estimated at just 166,000 barrels per day, as only 5 million barrels of Venezuelan crude and fuel oil have left the South American country in recent weeks, analysts and traders tell Reuters.

China imports significant amounts of crude oil and natural gas from Nigeria, with mineral fuels making up the bulk of Nigeria’s exports to China.

Though China also sources heavily from the Middle East and Russia, Nigeria provides a secure market for the country, even as its production faces challenges such as insecurity and corruption.

Key exports include crude petroleum, gas, and some solid minerals. At the same time, China offers economic partnerships, including potential zero-tariff access for Nigerian goods to boost trade, notes Intelpoint and Trading Economics.

Mineral fuels (crude oil, gas) are Nigeria’s primary exports to China, followed by ores, slag, and salt/earth materials, making up nearly 90 per cent of total exports, according to Intelpoint.

In 2023, mineral fuels alone were valued at $1.41 billion, notes Intelpoint.

Chinese entities, like CNOOC, are major investors in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, with significant stakes in offshore development,

To compare, Venezuela’s exports of combined crude and fuel oil to China averaged about 642,000 bpd in 2025, according to internal documents of the Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA seen by Reuters.

U.S. forces have seized at least five tankers from Venezuela since the middle of December, while many vessels that have departed from the South American country have returned to Venezuelan waters to avoid the U.S. blockade.

Around the January 3 capture of Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces, PDVSA was unable to ship oil cargoes to Asia, as the U.S. “oil quarantine” of Venezuela continued.

Chevron is the only Western oil company currently authorised by the U.S. Treasury to operate in Venezuela. Chevron ships the crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Venezuelan shipments to Asia, however, were at a standstill, and China, Venezuela’s top oil customer, is receiving lower volumes of crude.

In fact, Chinese oil buyers have reduced their intake of Venezuelan oil as the discount between Brent and the country’s flagship Merey crude shrank from $15 per barrel last month to $13 per barrel now, Bloomberg reported last week, citing unnamed sources.

At the request of the US government, Trafigura and Vitol are providing logistical and marketing services to facilitate the sale of Venezuelan oil, Trafigura said on Friday, following a meeting of oil industry executives with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House.

Vitol and Trafigura are offering Venezuelan crude to refiners in China and India for March delivery, trade sources told Reuters on Monday.