EnterpriseNGR Aligns With World Bank, IMF On 4.4% GDP Growth Projection For 2026

EnterpriseNGR, a professional policy and advocacy group, has aligned with projections by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), forecasting a 4.4 per cent growth in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026.

The projection was disclosed by the Head of Research at EnterpriseNGR, Omotayo Murtala, during the presentation of the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook titled “Reforms-Led Stability: Boosting Confidence, Unlocking Sustainable Growth”, organised by EnterpriseNGR in partnership with EY in Lagos on Thursday.

Recall that both the World Bank and the IMF, in their Global Economic Prospects and World Economic Outlook (WEO), respectively, had earlier projected Nigeria’s economic growth at 4.4 per cent.

Speaking at the event, Murtala said Nigeria’s foreign reserves are expected to rise steadily to $51.04 billion in 2026, supported by improved naira stability and increased oil production.

He explained that sustained peace in the Niger Delta and higher crude output would bolster external reserves, noting that oil production is projected at 1.5 million barrels per day, with crude oil prices estimated at $61 per barrel.

Although the outlook projects inflation to edge up to 16.5 per cent in 2026, Murtala said the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) is expected to remain unchanged at 27 per cent.

The report also projects Nigeria’s public debt at 34.68 per cent of GDP, describing it as manageable. According to Murtala, the effective implementation of recently enacted tax laws will help keep public debt within sustainable limits.

The 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook noted that Nigeria’s economy is at a critical transition point, moving from reform-driven adjustment to stabilisation and renewed confidence.

“Our analysis shows that inflation moderated to 15.15 per cent by December 2025, the lowest level in five years, supported by tighter monetary policy, improved foreign-exchange transparency, and easing supply pressures,” the report stated.

“Looking ahead to 2026, our baseline projections point to moderate growth, easing inflation pressures, and improving investor sentiment, provided reform consistency is maintained. Stabilisation is underway, but the challenge now is ensuring that macroeconomic gains translate into real economic outcomes for businesses and households.”

Murtala added that services, financial intermediation, telecommunications and trade remain the key drivers of economic growth.

He said foreign-exchange market reforms increased market turnover by over 56 per cent year-on-year. At the same time, external reserves rose to $45.5 billion, strengthening Nigeria’s external buffers and supporting confidence in the naira.

“Importantly, non-oil sectors now account for over 96 per cent of GDP, underscoring the breadth of economic activity beyond hydrocarbons,” he said.

Earlier, the chief executive officer of EnterpriseNGR, Obi Ibekwe, said Nigeria’s economy had undergone difficult but necessary reforms and has now reached a post-adjustment inflexion point.

According to her, reforms in the foreign-exchange market, fiscal framework and financial system, though painful, were essential to correcting long-standing distortions.

“What this Outlook makes clear is that Nigeria has reached a post-adjustment inflexion point. Key indicators such as inflation, foreign-exchange liquidity, external reserves and investor sentiment suggest that the foundations for macroeconomic stability have now been laid,” Ibekwe said.

She stressed that the priority is to convert reform gains into sustainable growth, investment and improved welfare, describing the outlook as both an assessment and a call to action for policymakers, investors and private-sector leaders.

Ibekwe added that the financial and professional services sector has a critical role to play in the next phase of growth by mobilising capital, managing risk and supporting the real economy.

Also speaking, Olayinka Oyetunji said from a private-sector and investor perspective, Nigeria’s economy is clearly moving from adjustment toward stabilisation.

She noted that inflation has moderated, foreign-exchange market functionality has improved, and external buffers have strengthened, all of which are crucial for investor confidence.

According to her, Nigeria’s investment opportunities are expanding beyond hydrocarbons, with growing prospects in services, financial intermediation, technology and critical mineral resources such as gold and lithium.

Oyetunji, however, cautioned that sustaining the momentum will require policy consistency and effective implementation, as investors will be closely watching how reforms are institutionalised.

“From a private sector and investor perspective, what stands out clearly is that Nigeria is moving from adjustment toward stabilisation. Recent reforms in the foreign exchange market, fiscal management, and the financial system have materially improved transparency, liquidity, and confidence.

“Inflation has moderated, foreign exchange market functioning has improved, and external buffers have strengthened. These developments are critical because investors respond not just to growth numbers,

But, on policy credibility and predictability, one of the key messages in this Outlook is that Nigeria’s opportunity set is widening beyond hydrocarbons.

“The growing role of services, financial intermediation, technology, and emerging opportunities in solid minerals resources, including gold and lithium, supports diversification and technology-oriented investment.”

“However, the report is also clear that sustaining this momentum will require consistency. Investors will be watching closely to see whether reforms are embedded institutionally and supported by effective implementation.”