Nigeria’s 4.07% GDP Surge Can Shield It From Oil Crisis, Says Edun

Nigeria’s robust 4.07% real GDP growth in Q4 2025 positions the country to weather looming oil market shocks from Iran tensions, Finance Minister Wale Edun said on Tuesday.

The Economic Management Team (EMT), chaired by Edun as Coordinating Minister of the Economy, convened to evaluate the risks posed by the US-Israel-Iran standoff to global energy routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Edun said the federal government had begun assessing the potential economic implications of the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the United States, Israel and Iran, amid concerns about possible disruptions to global energy markets.

In a statement issued on Tuesday by the assistant director, Information and Public Relations, Uloma Amadi, the government said it was closely monitoring developments and remained committed to safeguarding Nigeria’s economic stability.

The EMT, recently convened a meeting to review the potential impact of the unfolding crisis on the Nigerian economy.

Edun also chaired a Naira-for-Crude policy coordination meeting to evaluate developments in the global energy market and their possible domestic implications.

The government noted that the situation remained fluid, with global markets already showing signs of uncertainty amid concerns about potential disruptions to critical energy supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.

Such disruptions, it said, could lead to volatility in crude oil prices and financial markets worldwide.

Given Nigeria’s integration into global commodity and financial markets, the government identified three major channels through which the crisis could affect the domestic economy.

These include crude oil and gas prices, capital flows and financial market conditions, as well as global logistics and supply costs.

The statement noted that volatility in global energy markets was already pushing up the prices of key commodities, with possible implications for domestic fuel, diesel, cooking gas, and fertiliser costs.

It added that heightened geopolitical risks could also lead to a shift by global investors toward safe-haven assets, potentially affecting capital inflows into emerging markets, including Nigeria.

In addition, disruptions to major shipping and energy supply routes could increase international freight and logistics costs, thereby exerting upward pressure on domestic prices.

The Minister of Finance noted that, beyond these immediate effects, sustained instability in the region could lead to higher prices for goods and services, further intensifying inflationary pressures and the cost of living.

During the EMT meeting, ministers provided sector-specific updates on the evolving situation, with discussions focusing on the likely scale of impact on Nigeria depending on the duration and intensity of the conflict.

Particular attention was placed on how developments in the global oil market could influence Nigeria’s fiscal outlook and external reserves.

The government said the Economic Management Team is closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including global crude oil prices, exchange rate developments, and their potential impact on domestic prices.

It is also tracking capital flows, financial market conditions and broader implications for Nigeria’s fiscal position.

Despite global uncertainty, the Federal Government said Nigeria is entering the period from a position of strengthened economic fundamentals.

It cited recent economic data showing that the country recorded a real Gross Domestic Product growth of 4.07 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, one of the strongest quarterly performances in more than a decade.

According to the statement, the growth reflects the impact of ongoing economic reforms and improved macroeconomic coordination.

The government said it remains committed to protecting these gains and ensuring that recent progress in economic stabilisation and revenue mobilisation is not undermined by external shocks.

To achieve this, the Economic Management Team is maintaining close coordination across fiscal, monetary and energy policy institutions.

Policy options are also being kept under continuous review to mitigate potential volatility and protect households and businesses from the possible spillover effects of the global crisis. Edun emphasised that careful policy calibration would remain central to the government’s response to evolving global developments.

He also assured that the Federal Government would continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust policy measures where necessary to minimise disruptions, sustain investor confidence and protect the welfare of Nigerians.

The government reaffirmed its commitment to taking all necessary steps to preserve Nigeria’s economic stability and sustain the country’s growth trajectory amid the prevailing global uncertainties.