Why Nigeria, Others May Fail To Exploit Global Oil Prices

Africa may become the centerpiece of energy focus if the conflict triggered by the war against Iran by the United States and Israel persists as analyst’s fear increased disruption as oil prices continue to go up.

As of Friday March 20, 2026 oil prices stayed above $100 a barrel as Iran tightened its stranglehold on Strait of Hormuz, a channel through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged more than 9 percent on Thursday as traders weighed the prospect of weeks, or even months, of turmoil in energy markets as the United States and Israel waged war on Iran.

The latest surge in oil prices came after Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to maintain the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports about one-fifth of global oil supplies.

In a statement read out on his behalf on Iranian state television, Khamenei described Tehran’s threats against shipping in the waterway as a “lever” that “must continue to be used”.

However, US President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb the strait to dislodge Iran’s stranglehold on it, a situation experts feared will escalate the crisis.

African countries may enjoy dividends from the high prices if they are better structured to exploit the situation as more oil consuming nations may look in the direction of the continent’s oil producing nations to augment their needs.

High prices in the global market in an ideal sense should be an advantage to oil producing countries but the situation may not represent this reality.

Here is a list of top African oil-producing countries in order of their ranking by daily crude oil output.

Nigeria is Africa’s top producer with roughly over million bpd, despite facing pipeline vandalism and challenges of sector reforms.

Libya ranks second, with production heavily influenced by political stability and repairing infrastructure, maintaining over   million bpd.

Angola comes in as number three followed by Algeria, Egypt, the Republic of Congo, Gabon, Sudan, Ghana and Equatorial Guinea.

However, experts have doubted the capacity of African countries to maximize the situation as they point to poor infrastructure and corruption. Most experts pointed to Nigeria as an example of a nation that is already failing as the energy crisis has hit the citizens with scarcity and high fuel prices that have risen by over 50% in recent days.

Nigeria’s 2026 budget is anchored on a crude oil benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel. The budget framework, which anticipates a total expenditure of N54.46 trillion, also projects a daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels and an exchange rate of 1400 naira to a dollar.

Nigeria is not gaining as much from rising prices due to over reliance on importing refined fuel and its  inability to meet production targets  as higher  import costs for refined petroleum erase potential profits, causing severe  economic stress for the hapless citizens.

Prices of Premium motor spirit(PMS) also known as fuel have skyrocketed in Nigeria as a liter of PMS has gone up to N1300 and above from N900 prior to the outbreak of hostilities between the US-Israel and Iran.

Speaking to our Correspondent on Saturday, public intellectual Dr. Katch Ononuju said that the corruption in the Nigerian oil sector has hindered development in the sector due to poor policies and corruption.

He blamed the former President Muhammadu Buhari for mortgaging Nigerian oil with loans he collected and squandered, and therefore cannot even provide local refiner, the Dangote Group with crude from the now privatized NNPC.

“Buhari borrowed money with Nigerian oil in a fraudulent contractual arrangement that was riddled with corruption. Buhari stole Nigeria’s oil in advance,” he said, adding that there was nothing like reforms in the oil sector as claimed by the Buhari government.

Another expert in international relations, Mr. Charles Onunaiju, described the situation in Nigeria as a “ very serious problem” and lamented that  the prices are getting out of hand, adding that the Nigerian government should have anticipated this and taken proactive measures.

“The government should have anticipated this crisis because everybody saw it coming and they took proactive measures. It is unfortunate that a situation that should have brought succor to our people has brought suffering because of a rogue system that has been tied to loans.”

“The country is under the rule of a mafia that is so unconscionable and treating the citizens like conquered territory and the country like a war booty.”

He sounded not too hopeful that if the problem persists, Nigerians may be thrown into a deeper crisis as there appears no end in sight to this problem.

He tasked the citizens to take their destiny into their own hands and salvage the nation from the grip of the leaders he described as “incompetent and vile.”