Expert Warns Nigerians May Suffer Despite Oil Revenue Gains

A development advocate, Micheal Ale, has called on President Bola Tinubu and the National Assembly to urgently constitute a high-level stakeholders’ committee to address the ripple effects of the escalating “water war” in the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking on the World Water Day 2026, Ale, founder of the Global Initiative for Nigeria Development, warned that the ongoing tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel have already triggered significant global economic disruptions, particularly in the energy sector.

He noted that Iran’s retaliatory actions, including restricting access to the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime corridor responsible for about 20 per cent of global oil shipments have led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices from approximately $78 per barrel to $120 per barrel.

Ale cautioned that the price could climb as high as $250 per barrel if hostilities persist.

According to him, while Nigeria may benefit from higher crude oil revenues, the domestic consequences could be severe, with petrol prices projected to rise from about N930 to N1,300 per litre and diesel from N980 to N1,700 per litre or more, depending on the trajectory of the conflict.

“This situation underscores the power of water beyond its traditional association with domestic and gender issues. It has now become a driver of economic realities and livelihood disruptions,” Ale stated.

He expressed concern that escalating energy costs could trigger a chain reaction affecting food production and distribution, particularly impacting women and vulnerable populations.

“If the conflict continues, women may be unable to access farms, children may lack energy to fetch water, and agricultural produce may not reach markets due to increased transportation costs,” he warned.

Ale extended sympathy to women and children directly affected by the conflict in the Middle East, as well as those in Africa who might bear indirect consequences of the crisis.

He stressed that although Nigeria was not directly involved in the conflict, its socio-economic effects could significantly impact the country’s most vulnerable groups.

Describing the crisis as a “water war” now entering its fourth week, Ale urged the Federal Government to act swiftly by setting up a multi-sectoral committee to develop strategies aimed at cushioning the economic and social impacts on Nigerians.

“The effect of this conflict may snowball into widespread livelihood disruption if urgent measures are not taken,” he added.