Unlike in the past when, to some extent, analysts predicted where the pendulum would swing ahead of previous presidential polls, next year’s poll is fraught with doubts and uncertainties. Less than nine weeks to decide who succeeds President Muhammadu Buhari; the chances of the candidates have been a subject of polls rating.
Among the candidates of the frontline parties: All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party (LP) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), crippling anxiety is building up. However, unlike in developed countries where the results of polls matter, it may turn into a different kettle of fish in Nigeria where certain dynamics are always at play to decide who emerges victorious.
The role of critical stakeholders cannot be ruled out in determining who eventually breast the tape. Nigeria’s democracy is still evolving, and depends more on what is not seen than what is seen. Whether true or false, the presence of power wilders cannot be denied. Some of these power wielders, having exercised influence in national affairs, are now members of an exclusive club called ‘Owners of Nigeria’.
In an exclusive interview in 2006, I had with the former governor of old Kaduna State, Mallam Abdulkadir Balarabe Musa, he dismissed apprehension over Nigeria’s possible disintegration on account of the reprehensible ‘Third Term’ agenda. In alluding to the unseen powers of these past military leaders, he categorically assured me that the ‘Owners of Nigeria’ won’t go to sleep and allow the nation to disintegrate under their watch.
Who are the ‘Owners of Nigeria? I asked.
Former military leaders and their cronies whose roles as former Heads of State exercise tremendous political and economic influence over what happens in the country, Balarabe Musa responded.
Even to the undiscerning observer, there are certain persons who exercise far-reaching influence in building and molding consensus for national action. Considering the roles of the military before the advent of this unbroken democracy, some of these leaders, who ruled in uniforms, played crucial roles that gave birth to the present democracy.
Former Military President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, with his vast network of national connections, worked assiduously for the comeback bid of former Head of State, General Olusegun Obasanjo, in 1999. Proving that “statesmanship is harder than politics,” the gap-toothed retired Armoured General wielded behind-the-scenes synergy to ensure the election of Ota Farmer in 1999.
While the hands of ‘Owners of Nigeria’ have been visible in critical periods of our country’s numerous junctions, these leaders have never abdicated responsibility in standing up for the nation when it mattered the most. Much as these power wielders are gravely concerned with what may befall the country they bled to save from disintegration, considering the present gloom that stalks the nation, these military leaders of yore, now retired from active politics, are assisting politicians in the corridors of power with valuable advice.
Two key members of this exclusive club have paid their dues in stabilising the nation. General Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma, a professional soldier to the core, is noted for his non-partisanship when politics is involved. He is reputed for opposing political bullies and standing on the side of truth. Danjuma’s silence is most times interpreted as standing for something.
For IBB, he is reputed as Nigeria’s military democrat who introduced diarchy in running the affairs of the country from 1985 to 1993. For warts and all, he is remembered as a leader who was never afraid of taking decisions, no matter whose ox was gored. His name still ignites a madding crowd of passionate admirers and opponents. During his reign as Nigerian leader, he demonstrated the words of American General Douglas McArthur who once declared that a “true leader has the confidence to stand alone, the courage to make tough decisions, and the compassion to listen to the needs of others.”
For another member of Nigeria’s club of power wielders, Obasanjo, he still crisscrosses the nation in advancing the dream he envisions for his nation despite striding past four scores of age. While he has declared he is totally in support of power rotation to the South, he has remained unrepentant in insisting that competence and justice is what the country needs to go beyond the point President Buhari has taken us.
Recently, there have been reports that ahead of the 2023 polls, these former military leaders, with connections, are divided over Buhari’s successor. Some of the reports allege that religion and regional factors may have informed the basis of such choices, with Professor Farooq Kperogi writing last week that General IBB, Abdulsalami Abubakar and former National Security Adviser (NASA), Aliyu Gusau, “are decidedly in Atiku’s camp, Obasanjo and Theophilus Danjuma support Obi”.
Like some commentators before him, Kperogi’s linking support for Obi by Obasanjo and Danjuma only awakens the monster of divisive ethnicity and religious imagery to vitiate clear understanding of present political dynamics that is shaping the outcome of the presidential poll. What is inescapable and true is that politicians, through their megaphones, have resorted to the manipulation of religion to gain ascendancy. Tagging support for Obi by Obasanjo and the General from Takum for Obi on account of religion remains a manipulative tool for political advantage.
Without doubt, General IBB in the past has publicly declared his retirement from partisan politics. Therefore, alleging that he supports PDP’s Atiku for 2023 amounts to a great disservice to his status as a statesman. I have had the privilege of meeting IBB this year. He has always reiterated his yearning for a peaceful and united country devoid of rancour. IBB has always looked forward to a time where premium is placed on Nigerian citizenship, rather than where people hail from.
Few days ago, I placed a call to him to check if he has changed his mind and now supports a particular candidate. He responded that he remains a father to all, irrespective of political, ethnicity or religion divides. Little wonder, his Minna Hilltop has become a Mecca for many politicians and ordinary citizens who throng his residence for consultation and blessings.
What now unites these past military leaders is not getting their allies into the corridors of power; the urgent focus before them is seeking to sustain the Nigerian project that has suffered setbacks. There may be differences in their approaches on how to get this realised, but they are irrevocably committed to uniting our nation’s rancorous segments for unity and development.
Realising that military rule is an alien system to democracy and resorting to installation of candidates for power has become obsolete, these military leaders of yore are building various platforms for national consensus for justice and fairplay. In their retirement, they have discovered that what the nation needs now is the enthronement of the expressed wishes of the people through the ballot.
The devastating ravenousness of the political class has erased its capacity to build consensus. Despite describing military regimes as corruption-ridden, the present level of rot as unleashed by politicians has turned our past military leaders as saints. It is the absence of capacity to build a just nation that has turned these military leaders into influential leaders and statesmen of great reputation.
As we move towards the general polls, we must avoid any ploy at painting these past military leaders as supporters of political candidates. While the intention may be to ignite public odium against their persons and keep the citizenry permanently divided, we must see these statesmen as the last bulwark against forces fighting to enthrone anarchy and chaos ahead and after the next year’s polls that may turn out rancorous with frightening unpredictability.
Desperate politicians and their supporters are leaving no stone unturned to throw the nation into a quagmire of chaos over the likely outcome of next year’s polls. Whatever is the fallout, we must guide against allowing the outcome to culminate into dark clouds for our nation. We must work against destroying the non-partisanship of statesmen that serves as the last line of defence against enemies of our corporate existence. We must work towards ensuring the survival of Nigeria beyond the precarious situation politicians are desperately trying to throw this country into. Our democracy cannot be best served by dragging statesmen into the mud of negative partisanship that could spell a collective doom for our nation.