A global credit rating agency, Fitch Solutions, maintained that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress (APC).
“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North (see chart above).
“Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West,” Fitch Solutions said.
Victory for Tinubu, who Fitch has predicted would win the election next February, would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.
“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians,” Fitch Solutions said in a report.
Fitch Solutions said it believes that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election.
“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
“At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election.
“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar People’s Democratic Party (PDP) were mostly based on responses gathered online.”
