2027: How Running Mates Could Swing Votes For Tinubu, Atiku, Obi

The unveiling of vice-presidential candidates by the major political parties has shifted attention to the possible impact of running mates on the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.

With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) closing nominations, President Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will seek re-election alongside Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Meanwhile, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, has chosen former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate.

The National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has also selected former Kano State governor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, as his running mate.

The emergence of the three tickets has drawn attention to the political experience, regional appeal and grassroots support the running mates are expected to bring to their respective campaigns ahead of the February 2027 presidential election.

For the APC, Shettima remains on the ticket after serving as vice president since 2023. A former governor of Borno State and former senator representing Borno Central, he is expected to play a key role in the party’s efforts to retain support in the North-East.

The region is expected to be a major battleground in the election, with Atiku, who is also from the North-East, seeking to consolidate his traditional political base.

During the 2023 presidential election, Atiku won Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe states, while Tinubu secured only Borno State in the zone.

On the ADC ticket, Atiku’s choice of Amaechi has been widely seen as an effort to strengthen the party’s presence in the South-South and expand its reach across the South-East.

Amaechi, a former Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, two-term governor and former Minister of Transportation, brings decades of political and administrative experience to the ticket.

He was one of the leading aspirants in the APC presidential primary ahead of the 2023 election, finishing behind Tinubu.

Although Tinubu won Rivers State in the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi emerged as the dominant candidate across much of the South-East. Obi also recorded significant support in parts of the South-South.

While Tinubu polled 1,271 votes in the 2023 APC presidential primary, Amaechi, a former minister and top contender, polled 316 votes. Former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo received 235 votes.

For the NDC, Obi’s selection of Kwankwaso is expected to strengthen the party’s prospects in Northern Nigeria, particularly Kano State and parts of the North-West.

Kwankwaso, a former Kano State governor and senator, is widely recognised for leading the Kwankwasiyya Movement, one of the country’s most influential grassroots political organisations.

He won Kano State in the 2023 presidential election, defeating the APC, PDP, and Labour Party candidates by a wide margin.

In the election, Kwankwaso, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, obtained 58.4 per cent of the votes and won the state by nearly 440,000 votes, a 26.9 per cent margin of victory over runner-up Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The other two major contenders, Tinubu and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, trailed with 7.3 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively.

However, Kwankwaso’s emergence on the ticket comes after internal disagreements within the Kwankwasiyya Movement following his fallout with his political godson, Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, who had defected to the ruling APC.

Policy and political analyst Suleiman Hassan Gimba said Nigerians should not assume that elections are won solely because of the personalities on a presidential ticket.

According to him, presidential elections are determined by several factors, including leadership perception, campaign organisation, financing, security, electoral integrity and voter turnout.

“The APC, ADC, and NDC have all selected individuals with considerable political experience. However, experience alone does not automatically translate into votes. Every ticket must now convince Nigerians that it offers a credible solution to the country’s economic and security challenges,” he told LEADERSHIP Weekend.

Gimba said vice-presidential candidates contribute political structures, strategic advice, and regional influence to presidential campaigns, but cautioned against assuming they could single-handedly deliver entire states or geopolitical zones.

He noted that Kwankwaso possesses one of the country’s strongest independent grassroots political movements and  Shettima offers administrative experience and knowledge of the North-East, while Amaechi brings decades of political organisation and executive experience.

A lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Dr Christian Okeke, described Kwankwaso as the running mate with the strongest independent grassroots political following.

According to him, the Kwankwasiyya Movement has evolved into a dependable electoral structure that has repeatedly demonstrated its political strength.

“Without diminishing the strengths of the other vice-presidential candidates, I believe Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has the strongest natural grassroots followership. The movement he built has translated into electoral value and remains his greatest political asset,” he said.

Okeke acknowledged that Shettima enjoys the advantage of incumbency, while Amaechi brings years of administrative and political experience.

He, however, maintained that the success of any presidential ticket would ultimately depend on how effectively the parties mobilise voters and respond to the issues that matter most to Nigerians.

Two other analysts, Peter Fakolujo and Isaac Kekefun, both former members of the PDP and AD respectively, pointed out that political dynamics had changed since Amaechi contested the APC presidential primary and since Obi contested the 2023 presidential election on the Labour Party platform.

Fakolujo, who is from Osun State, said it would be difficult for the former Rivers State governor to dislodge the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, from Rivers State, where both were governors.

He said, “Amaechi will need to fight even harder to win Rivers State. Wike is on the ground in the state. You could see how he prevented the state governor, Siminalayi Fubara, from getting a second-term ticket.

“If you go to the PDP, Wike is there. In APC, he is also like a landlord. He is in charge of all the members of the state House of Assembly. Even at the national level, he is influential. So, Amaechi will really need to work to secure votes for his party and Atiku.

“He (Amaechi) could capitalise on the anger of some members of the APC and PDP who are unhappy with how Fubara was treated. They may want to show their anger by aligning with the opposition. In this case, Atiku may benefit.”

“If we also look at the South-South, the entire region is under the control of the APC. The APC governs all six states. The states, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers have all gone to the APC.

“Before now, the PDP governed Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Rivers. I’m sure the governors of these six states will work for the party in their respective states.”

Kekefun, from Bayelsa State, agreed with Fakolujo’s assessment of the role Amaechi could play in determining Atiku’s chances.

“But you know that Amaechi is young, vibrant, and energetic. He is also a fighter. I’m sure he will add value to the ticket for the ADC and Atiku,” he added.

Kekefun also said choosing Kwankwaso as Obi’s running mate is strategic. He argued that Kwankwaso could bring votes from the seven states in the North-West, adding that the former Kano governor remains popular in the state.

“Kwankwaso is very popular among many northern Muslim voters. He is also popular among young voters. His popularity could strengthen Obi’s appeal, as some people may not be comfortable with him as president.

“But with a deputy like Kwankwaso, Obi is likely to get more votes from the northern region, especially among northern Muslims,” Kekefun noted.

It was also argued that retaining Shettima as Tinubu’s running mate would shield the APC from further controversy over calls for a change in the ticket.

Mallam Abubakar Dahiru said dropping Shettima in favour of a Christian candidate, as canvassed by some people, could further divide the party.

“So, there’s nothing new to say about the APC ticket again. All the criticisms had been made three years ago. Nothing new again, apart from the economy and, probably, security, which the administration needs to address.

“Many Kanuri people and residents of Borno State have welcomed the decision. The governor of Borno State, Prof Babagana Zulum, has congratulated Shettima. Some governors from the North have done the same. I’m sure they will deliver votes for the APC ticket,” Dahiru said.

He, nevertheless, said the Vice President would have to work harder to convince voters in the North-East to back the APC ticket instead of Atiku, who also hails from the region.