2027: Obi, Kwankwaso Forge Alliance For ADC Ticket

Ex-Kano gov may settle for VP slot ahead of showdown with Atiku, Amaechi

Former Labour Party presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi, and ex-Kano State governor, Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, have teamed up in a political alliance ahead of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential primary, LEADERSHIP Weekend has learnt.

Under the deal, which is yet to be made public, though it has been publicly speculated upon for weeks, Kwankwaso will run as Obi’s vice-presidential candidate, as both men aim to consolidate the northern and southern blocs within the ADC ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The agreement was said to have been sealed in Abuja after weeks of back-channel negotiations coordinated by senior ADC stakeholders seeking a “broad-based ticket” to challenge other contenders, party sources told LEADERSHIP Weekend.

The Obi–Kwankwaso ticket is now set for a direct showdown with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Rivers governor Rotimi Amaechi, who are also eyeing the ADC presidential ticket, with the online spaces already getting excited about what they term the OK Movement (Obi-Kwankwaso Movement or Obidient-Kwankwasiya Movement).

Party insiders say the pairing is designed to merge Obi’s support base in the South-East and South-South with Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya movement in the North-West, in a bid to reshape the party’s electoral map ahead of 2027.

Reacting to the development, a senior aide in the Atiku Abubakar camp described the Obi–Kwankwaso alliance as “expected” but insisted that the former vice president remains the “most experienced and sellable candidate” in the ADC race.

“We welcome competition. Atiku has nationwide structures and the goodwill to win. This is democracy; we are not losing sleep over any alliance,” the aide, who asked not to be named, told LEADERSHIP Weekend on Wednesday night.

Similarly, allies of former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi dismissed the ticket as a “marriage of convenience” that would not alter the dynamics of the primary.

“Politics is about numbers and structures, not headlines. Amaechi is consulting widely and will present himself when the time comes. Let them forge alliances; we are building a coalition that can win in 2027,” an Amaechi loyalist said.

In Kano, supporters of the Kwankwasiyya movement have hailed the deal, saying Kwankwaso’s decision to accept the VP slot shows the “political maturity” needed to unseat the ruling party in 2027.

“Kwankwaso is a strategist. If stepping down helps us win, so be it. What matters is rescuing Nigeria,” Sani Bello, a Kwankwasiyya coordinator in Fagge Local Government Area of Kano, told our correspondent.

Kwankwaso’s current stance, if it fully materialises, is a departure from his position ahead of the 2023 election, when he scoffed at the idea of running as Obi’s deputy, claiming he had a higher political ceiling than Obi.

However, Obi’s strong showing in the 2023 election, which surpassed Kwankwaso’s by a wide margin; the fact that a prevailing sentiment favours a president from the South in 2027; the realisation that they stand less chance of beating the incumbent President Tinubu if they face him individually, and Obi’s pledge to govern for just one term if elected president, appear to have swayed Kwankwaso into this alliance. If they emerge from the ADC and win the presidential polls, he would have only four years to wait before running for president as an incumbent vice president.

It is well that the present arrangement puts Obi in the lead, as his supporters, popularly known as the Obidient Movement, insist he should not concede the top spot in any negotiation in the current political space.

“We trust Obi; 2027 is not a time to play second fiddle,” said Ngozi Eze, a trader at Onitsha Main Market.

A high-ranking member of the Kwankwasiyya Movement who spoke with LEADERSHIP Weekend, and a close associate of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Umar Faruk, has confirmed that discussions on a proposed joint ticket between Kwankwaso and Peter Obi had reached an advanced stage, with key stakeholders already aligning on the arrangement.

Faruk disclosed that senior members of the movement had met with their principal and Obi, stressing that the deal had been effectively sealed in principle.

He said the proposed ticket remains the most viable option to bring the needed succour to Nigerians and to challenge what he described as the ruling party’s self-styled political dominance.

“Obi will run for president while Kwankwaso will be his running mate. This arrangement has been agreed in principle, and we believe it offers a credible path to Nigeria’s liberation,” he stated.

Speaking in the same vein, the national coordinator of the Obedient Movement, Dr Tanko Yunusa, described the movement as the political organisation that spearheaded Obi’s 2023 presidential campaign, adding that efforts are ongoing behind the scenes to ensure the proposed alliance becomes a reality.

“Yes, we are working together to ensure this becomes a reality. We are serious about it,” he said.

Earlier, the national publicity secretary of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Ladipo Johnson, had said that a joint presidential ticket between Obi and Kwankwaso on the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) remains the most viable way to energise the opposition coalition.

Johnson argued that such an alliance would provide a strong counterforce to what he described as the “near-despotic leadership” of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), noting that both leaders command strong grassroots support capable of reshaping the political landscape.

Meanwhile, emerging concerns have been raised about the grassroots strength of key figures in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition ahead of the 2027 general elections, with analysts and political stakeholders pointing to past election results and shifting alliances across several states as potential obstacles.

Prominent politicians associated with the coalition include Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Dino Melaye, Tunde Ogbeha, Dele Momodu, John Odigie-Oyegun, Babachir Lawal, Sadique Abubakar, Ireti Kingibe, Bolaji Abdullahi, Rotimi Amaechi, Rauf Aregbesola, and David Mark.

Checks by LEADERSHIP Weekend, based on results from the 2023 general elections and subsequent off-cycle polls, indicate varying levels of electoral strength among the politicians in their respective states, raising questions about the coalition’s ability to convert individual influence into a coordinated national victory.

In Anambra State, Obi polled 584,621 votes to win the 2023 presidential election. However, the ADC’s 8,208 votes in the 2025 governorship election exposed structural gaps and limited grassroots penetration of the party. It must, however, be noted that Obi ran on the Labour Party ticket in 2023, not on the ADC ticket, and that his following is independent of political party.

In Adamawa State, Atiku secured 417,611 votes, maintaining his dominance, although stakeholders note that evolving alliances could reshape voter behaviour ahead of 2027.

While Babachir Lawal remains influential, his absence from the ballot in recent cycles makes it difficult to measure his current electoral pull directly.

In Kogi State, Dino Melaye polled 46,362 votes in the 2023 governorship election, finishing third, a result analysts say reflects the challenge of converting visibility into broad-based grassroots support. Former Senator Tunde Ogbeha did not contest, and observers suggest his influence has waned over time.

In Bauchi State, Sadique Abubakar secured 432,272 votes but lost to the PDP candidate, who polled 525,280 votes, highlighting a competitive environment where alliances and turnout remain decisive.

In Edo State, both John Odigie-Oyegun and Dele Momodu did not contest the last general election, making direct polling unit assessment difficult.

However, results from multiple polling units across the state in 2023 showed firm control by dominant parties, with little room for alternative platforms.

Observers note that Oyegun’s grassroots network has thinned over time, particularly at the ward level, while Momodu’s limited recent political presence in Edo raises questions about his ability to influence polling unit outcomes.

In the Federal Capital Territory, Ireti Kingibe won the 2023 senatorial election with 202,175 votes, but subsequent area council polls indicated weaker grassroots retention, including reports that she lost her polling unit in those contests, with analysts saying she benefited from the Obi bandwagon effect to dethrone longtime Abuja politician Senator Phillip Aduda in 2023.

In Kwara State, Bolaji Abdullahi remains active within party structures but did not contest in the last election cycle, even as the APC continues to maintain strong dominance.

In Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi faces a significant structural test. Patterns from recent elections across key local government areas such as Obio/Akpor, Port Harcourt City, Eleme, and Ikwerre indicate sustained consolidation of polling unit control by networks aligned with Nyesom Wike.

In Obio/Akpor, wards including Rumuodara, Rumuokwuta, and Ogbogoro have delivered strong margins for candidates backed by the dominant local structure, while similar trends have been observed in Port Harcourt City, particularly in Diobu and surrounding polling clusters.

In Eleme, units across the Aleto, Alesa, and Onne communities have consistently aligned with the prevailing bloc, while parts of Ikwerre have shown fragmented loyalties rather than unified control.

Comparative voting patterns from the 2023 elections indicate that the dominant structure maintained a consistent spread across polling units, while opposition votes appeared fragmented and less efficiently mobilised.

Analysts say this reflects a shift from personality-driven politics to structure-driven outcomes at the polling unit level. However, the questionable outcome of the 2023 presidential polls continues to cast a shadow on the integrity of the ballot box in the state.

Although Amaechi previously commanded a strong grassroots network, defections and internal divisions have weakened that system.

His absence from the ballot in recent elections has also limited verifiable data on his current polling unit strength, raising doubts about his ability to mobilise votes effectively under a new coalition platform.

Similarly, in Osun State, Rauf Aregbesola retains loyalists but operates within a political structure that has evolved beyond his direct control.

In Benue State, former Senate President David Mark remains influential but has not contested recent elections.

Political analysts who spoke with LEADERSHIP Weekend said the success of the ADC coalition in 2027 would depend less on individual popularity and more on the ability to build functional grassroots structures capable of mobilising voters at ward and polling unit levels and safeguarding their votes.

“If you look at recent elections, control of polling units, not just popularity, determines outcomes,” a political analyst, Kabiru Sani, said.

Another analyst, Nkechi Okafor, noted that shifting alliances and voter sentiment could still reshape the political terrain ahead of 2027.

However, an ADC chieftain, Aminu Nda-Onu, argued that national voter sentiment would ultimately play a decisive role.

“It is not just about individuals; Nigerians will decide based on performance and credibility,” he said.

Despite differing views, observers agree that without strong ward and polling unit control, even the most prominent political figures may struggle to convert influence into electoral victory in 2027.