2027: States That Will Determine Who Wins The Presidential Election

As political parties intensify preparations for the 2027 general elections, attention is increasingly shifting towards states that could determine the outcome of the presidential contest.

With President Bola Tinubu seeking re-election and opposition figures positioning themselves for another attempt at the presidency, the battle for electoral support is expected to extend beyond traditional political strongholds.

While Nigeria’s presidential election is determined by votes cast across the federation, historical voting patterns, population strength, and recent defections have placed certain states at the centre of the emerging contest.

From Kano’s influential political structure to Lagos’ competitive electorate and Rivers’ shifting political alliances, these states could play important roles in shaping the 2027 presidential race.

Against this backdrop, the following states could play important roles in shaping the 2027 presidential election.

Kano:
Kano State remains one of the most significant electoral territories in Nigeria. Not only is it the most populated state in the country, it also has a record for accumulating more than 8 Million voters —the highest number of registered voters in a state.

The state’s political direction could play a major factor in the 2027 general elections following the Kano State governor Abba Yusuf leaving NNPP to join APC, and the evolving political relationship between former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi.

The 2027 race in Kano State will witness a tough contest to determine the stronger opposition between Kwankwaso and Governor Yusuf, and with this development, Kano is definitely a state to watch.

Lagos:
As the second most populated state in Nigeria with over 7 Million voters, Lagos State remains a strategically important state for the APC, considering Tinubu’s political history and influence with the south west.

However, the 2023 presidential election demonstrated that the state’s electorate could support candidates outside the ruling party, after Tinubu lost to Peter Obi. These results highlighted the competitiveness of the presidential voting pattern in the state.

The battle for Lagos in the coming 2027 elections could be influenced by voter turnout, political mobilisation, economic concerns and the strength of opposition alliances.

Rivers:
Rivers State is among the top 10 states with the highest population in Nigeria and is one of the richest states in the country. It could also become an important battleground in the 2027 presidential election because of its political influence in the South-South.

Historically, the state has been an important political base for the PDP, although recent defections and political realignments have altered its political landscape.

At present, the APC is the most prominent party in the state because Minister Nyesom Wike, although he is still a member of the PDP, has pledged his support for Tinubu, and observers say it is hard to predict any other party that could win there.

However, the ongoing political tussle involving FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara plays a massive role in where its massive vote block swings.

Kaduna And Katsina:
Often grouped as the ‘KK States’, Kaduna and Katsina are two major states in the NorthWest that feature high voter turnout.

In the 2023 presidential elections, Tinubu lost in these states to Atiku, who was a candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), despite being governed by the APC.

The 2027 contest could therefore be influenced by political alliances, voter mobilisation, security concerns and public perception of the federal government.

Benue:
Benue State could emerge as an important battleground in the North Central, as it boasts a voting strength of 3.05 Million registered voters, making it the 8th largest voting bloc in Nigeria.

Because its voting patterns are notoriously unpredictable, national frontrunners view Benue as a must-win territory to secure both raw numbers and the constitutionally mandated 25 per cent voting threshold across the federation.

With its competitive voting history and influence of its political leaders, the state could be significant to candidates seeking support in the region. ,

Plateau:
Plateau State is an important swing state in the  North-Central that has undergone a massive political realignment ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Following Peter Obi’s victory in the state in the 2023 presidential elections, Plateau would be worth watching.

While political alliances and competition for support in the North-Central are changing, the 2027 contest could test whether Obi can retain his previous support or whether other parties can make significant gains.

Oyo:
Oyo State represents a major southwest battleground for the 2027 general elections.

The state’s importance lies partly with Governor Seyi Makinde, following his historic declaration to contest the presidency under a unique Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Allied Peoples Movement (APM) coalition alliance.

By positioning himself on the Allied People’s Movement (APM) ticket with his “Reset Nigeria” agenda, Makinde has turned his home state into a direct battleground capable of splintering President Bola Tinubu’s vital South-West regional base.

Niger:
Niger State is positioned as a very vital stronghold for the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) in the upcoming 2027 presidential election.

Niger State’s electoral strength, geographical position and political alignments make it relevant to parties seeking to expand their support beyond established strongholds.

Under the leadership of Governor Umaru Bago, the state has set an ambitious target to deliver over 2 million votes to secure President Bola Tinubu’s re-election. How voters respond to competing political campaigns will be important to watch.

Adamawa:
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s longstanding influence and support base makes Adamawa State particularly significant in the upcoming presidential election.

The 2027 election could test if the influence remains strong, particularly as opposition figures consider alliances and new political arrangements ahead of the polls.

As Atiku Abubakar’s home state, Adamawa serves as a crucial anchor for the northern opposition’s strategy to block the APC’s spread.

Kwara:
As a North-Central state, Kwara serves as the political gateway between northern and southern Nigeria, making it a critical geopolitical barometer for the 2027 presidential election.

Traditionally a core piece of the North Central swing belt, Kwara’s voting behavior provides a vital momentum indicator for the entire region.

Its voting pattern and the strength of party structures at the state level may prove important as the major parties seek to consolidate support across the region.

Ultimately, the 2027 presidential election will be shaped by more than the traditional strongholds of the major political parties.

Voter turnout, political alliances, party structures, candidate popularity and the influence of state-level leaders could all affect the outcome.

Although the states highlighted in this report are likely to attract significant attention, developments across other parts of the country could prove just as consequential.

The real test for the presidential candidates will be their ability to convert political influence and campaign promises into votes at the ballot box.