2027: The Jostle For Yobe Guber Seat

Although the 2027 general election is two clear years ahead, political scheming and permutations have commenced in earnest, with politicians building and consolidating alliances to capture, assume and retain power.

In Yobe State, where, like most states of the federation, the scheming for 2027 has since taken a life of its own, the struggle for the coveted governor’s seat is gradually taking shape, with different persons said to have indicated interest.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has a firm grip on power in the state. From 1999 to date, it has remained, though under different names, the political party that has continued to govern the state, whether as the defunct All Peoples Party (APP), which later metamorphosed to the All-Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) or as part of the political parties that merged to birth the ruling APC.

Therefore, it is unsurprising that most aspirants who have indicated or are associated with the race to succeed the incumbent APC government in the state are members of the ruling party. Unfortunately, a significant number of them are perceived to be mere pretenders, not contenders. Of course, some aspirants are said to be making broad consultations on which political platforms to use in realising their ambitions of governing the state.

Since the dawn of the current democratic dispensation in 1999, the APC has dominated Yobe State politics. The late Bukar Abba Ibrahim was elected governor and assumed power on May 29, 1999, on the platform of the defunct APP and later the ANPP. He was succeeded by the late Mamman Ali, who Ibrahim Geidam succeeded. Of course, Geidam handed over to Mai Mala Buni, the current governor, on the platform of the ruling APC.

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Political pundits uhassert that Governor Buni has raised the bar for whoever steps into his shoes. Thus, his successor would be expected to possess the political clout needed to establish a solid developmental foundation for the state.

Speaking to our correspondent, some politics watchers urged voters in the state to ensure that the top priority is accorded to the competence and track records of whoever will be voted to succeed Governor Mai Mala Buni.

According to Yusuf Audu Tumburwa, a youth activist, whoever succeeds Buni must be prepared to carry on and, most importantly, do all it takes to surpass what the governor has done in the state. ‘We cannot afford someone who will fall short of what we currently have as a benchmark for governance. And that is why we have continued championing competence, not zoning ‘ he said.

As the race for 2027 gathers momentum, the question on the lips of most people in the state is: Who succeeds Governor Mai Mala Buni? What qualities should Buni’s successor have? What are his chances? Many believe, and rightly so, that the state needs a credible and competent politician to succeed the governor.

Among those associated with the race to succeed Governor Buni are Senator Ahmed Ibrahim Lawan, former Senate President and Nigeria’s longest-serving lawmaker, Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai representing Yobe South at the upper chamber of the National Assembly (NASS), Senator Lawan Geidam, Baba Malam Wali, Mohammed Abacha Geidam, and Kashim Musa Tumsah.
Ahmed Lawan, the former Senate president who also sought the APC presidential ticket in 2023, is believed to have his eyes fixed on governing Yobe State for a long time. His backers claimed his national profile, experience, and political network make him a front-runner. However, he has to contend with elite pushback, potential generational disconnect and the fact that Yobe North has produced governors before. Lawan is seen by many, including some of his die-hard supporters, as being too selfish and selective in bringing the dividends of democracy to only his constituents. This factor will work against his aspiration.

There is also Senator Bomai, who currently represents Yobe South. He is seen as someone who, when elected, will offer a strategic opportunity to address longstanding regional marginalisation. Analysts believe that his constituency-level impacts may work in his favour if backed by the equity-driven appeal from Yobe South.

Another person whose name has continued to be mentioned is Senator Lawan Kolo Geidam. A contender from the Geidam political dynasty, Senator Lawan Kolo Geidam may benefit from grassroots familiarity and legacy strength.

There is also Baba Mallam Wali, a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), viewed as a time-tested technocrat whose candidacy may appeal to those seeking stability and administrative experience over political expediency. His strengths include the fact that he is respected within the civil service and party leadership. However, his minuses include low visibility as he is relatively unknown, especially outside the civil service and might struggle in a heated political environment.

In the seemingly long list is Mohammed Abacha Geidam, also seen widely as a member of the Geidam dynasty. Unless there’s an internal consensus, his run might cause friction within the group.

Fundamentally, as far as the race for the 2027 governorship seat in Yobe is concerned, one name that has continued to receive wide mention is Kashim Musa Tumsah, popularly known as KMT. A lawyer, diplomat, businessman, development advocate, and recipient of the national honours, Member of the Federal Republic, MFR, Tumsah, who hails from Bursari local government, is seen as a frontline contender.

The former Non-Executive Director on the Board of NNPC, Tums I ins seen as the real contestant who will deploy his vast 36 years of experience in the private and public sectors to amplify the governance narrative in the state effectively.

Politics watchers say one of the things working for KMT, as Tumsah is popularly known, is that his aspiration stems from the massive call on him to give the number one seat in the state a shot. Interestingly, among all those associated with the race for the Yobe governorship seat, KMT is the only person who has impacted different communities across the state despite not having held any political office.

Only recently, a coalition of youth and women groups from the state’s three senatorial districts appealed to KMT to enter the race, insisting that he has what is needed to reposition Yobe State for the contemporary challenges.

“While others are pushing themselves, KMT has continued to receive calls from different quarters urging him to join the race. He has not yet responded to many calls from groups, associations and individuals to agree and declare to run for governorship. Still, these calls have continued to gain traction, perhaps because those making the calls see clearly that he is competent,” Ahmed Zaharadeen, a public affairs analyst based in Potiskum, noted.

KMT is widely believed to be in the good books of Governor Buni, the man with whom he enjoys an enjoyable and friendly relationship. He’s the only one who hasn’t held any political office, and with the growing resentment towards political office holders, especially those whose long years of holding elective offices have had little or no impact on the people, Tumsah stands a good chance.

Interestingly, despite alleged attempts by some perceived political kingmakers to decide who gets elected into any political office, the preponderance of opinion seems to be that only the man with the most popular support and whose agenda resonates well with the people should be voted in as governor.

Although 2027 is a long time from now, considering that a day in politics is long enough to change the permutations, there are clear signs that the race for the coveted seat of Yobe governorship will be interesting.