2027: The Opposition Is Not Ready

The 2027 elections are just two months away, and nothing about the opposition tells you that they are serious and that they are ready to wrestle power from the ruling APC. The APC has a whopping 12.9 million registered members; the PDP has 2.4 million; the ADC has between 1.2 and 1.6 million; and the LP has 1.3 million. This registration is NIN-based, so figure manipulation is eliminated.

The figures speak volumes about the parties’ nationwide spread and presence, and their ability to mobilise supporters for elections. In the recent off-season elections held in Bauchi, Kano, Gombe and Delta states, the APC swept all the seats, with only the APM winning one seat in Bauchi state.

This is a glimpse of the level of preparedness of the parties across the country, 3 months away from an election. The APC has a controlling majority in terms of the number of state governors, leading with 31 governors, with the APM following with 2, while ACCORD, APGA, and Labour parties have one each. It is the same picture in the National Assembly, with the APC leading with 88 senators, followed by the ADC with 9 senators, PDP with 5 senators, NDC with 4 senators, while APGA, ACCORD, and Labour parties have 1 senator each. In the House of Representatives, the APC has 242 seats, the PDP has 72, the Labour Party has 22, the NNPP has 15, and the rest are shared among the other parties.

If the opposition was upbeat about Gov. Adeleke’s victory in Osun State, today, he is leading President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidential campaign council in the state. This is not limited to Osun State alone in the ranks of the opposition parties, as Prof. Charles Soludo, the Governor of Anambra State, is also the coordinator of President Tinubu’s campaign council in his state. The FCT minister, Mr Nyesom Wike of the PDP, also leads President Tinubu’s campaign council in Abuja, even though he belongs to the PDP. Mr Wike is leading a rainbow coalition, a cross-party political platform convened by the FCT minister to support President Tinubu’s 2nd-term election. All these governors and party leaders have set aside political and party differences to support President Tinubu’s 2nd term. The political parties and their leaderships, namely the APC, APGA, ACCORD, and PDP, have reached a consensus on their preferred presidential candidate, even if they have different ideas or candidates at the grassroots level.

The Peter Obi/Kwankwaso ticket of the NDC has lost considerable steam for many reasons. The momentum Peter Obi gathered in 2023 has waned because he has been deemed to lack focus and a clear ideology. He has flip-flopped innumerable times on policies and has failed to produce a blueprint or manifesto for what he wants to do. The large followership he commanded in the North Central states has been considerably broken by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s forays into the region. Most of those states are now APC states, with the APC party chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, and the Defence Minister, Gen. Christopher Musa, as well as Gov. Agbu Kefas of Taraba and Gov. Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau, leading President Tinubu’s charge for North Central votes. Prof. Soludo of Anambra State is also keen on making significant forays into the Obidients’ followership in his state. This is the same in Imo, with Gov. Hope Uzodinma curtailing Peter Obi’s influence in the state, thereby reducing Peter Obi’s support base in the South East. Kwankwaso’s influence on the ticket is limited to Kano alone, not to a single other northern state. Kano is likely to be evenly split between President Tinubu and Peter Obi/ Kwankwaso of the NDC.

Alh. Atiku Abubakar’s ADC charge has been lacklustre, uncoordinated, and lacking in momentum. It also seems to be lacking in funding, unlike previous campaigns he waged, in which he went toe-to-toe with the ruling party and matched their spending. His campaign also lacks heavyweights that could make a difference. It does not have the PDP structure it has run on previously, so the finances and the personnel are just not there. Unfortunately for him, his politicking only comes alive during election seasons, and he has been unable to build and maintain a political structure outside them. He has not been able to mobilise the opposition to come together under his umbrella, to launch a charge to unseat President Tinubu. The Kwankwasos and the Elrufais are missing from his campaigns, and so are the Wikes. Former Governor Rotimi Amaechi, as his running mate, lacks the support they require from the massive votes in Rivers and seems clueless in other South-South states. This is perhaps Atiku’s poorest outing yet, and I believe he ought to have relinquished his quest for the Presidency this time round. Changing political parties every election season does not exude ideology, vision, or focus. It reeks of desperation. The greatest undoing of the opposition, however, is their collective inability to come together as one and push a single candidate. They remain disunited in their quests.

President Tinubu’s wager for the Presidency back in 2023 was a well-organised, well-oiled, and properly structured campaign that made use of structures long built over the years. Against all odds, he emerged as the APC flagbearer and eventually the winner of the elections. Since then, his government has embarked on reforms and policy implementation that have led to the emancipation of our economy. Our foreign reserves are stronger, our GDP is on a continuous upward trend, we have stronger FDI inflows than we have seen in decades, and we are achieving food security. Agreed, more can be done to cushion the effects of these reforms on the common man, and the government is not resting on its laurels. The opposition does not have clear policies and programmes to run on.

Their only programme is to seize power, and that is it. As far as 2027 is concerned, President Tinubu’s campaign council is not only replicating the structure and mode of operation of its 2023 campaigns but also perfecting them, with 31 governors and their structures on board. The fact that President Tinubu is visiting a select number of states makes it even more efficient. Those states are the ones he needs to make a difference in from the last round of elections. He is better prepared and more equipped now, with more hands on deck. He is not ’emilokaning’ this one; he is bossing it as the C-in-C, without any gimmicks or cabals standing in his way.