As the 2027 general election draws closer, some Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) and political scientists opined that the opposition coalition under the newly adopted African Democratic Congress (ADC) has the potential to unseat President Bola Tinubu at the polls.
Recall that the APC has dismissed the opposition coalition movement’s ability to pull an upset in 2027. The Coalition, comprising opposition leaders drawn from PDP, APC, and SDP, adopted ADC as its vehicle to challenge the APC in 2027.
Reacting to whether the ADC can pull an upset in 2027, a lecturer in the department of political science at the Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Dr Terna Vincent Tavershima, asserted that the coalition can unseat Tinubu in the same way former President Goodluck was sent packing in 2015 by the merger that produced APC.
“The first question is, can the coalition unseat Tinubu? My response is yes. You know, Jonathan was unseated in this country. So, unseating Tinubu by the coalition will not be strange or new in the Nigerian political landscape. A sitting president was sent to the parking lot democratically in 2015. So Tinubu can be unseated. He can be defeated in a transparent, free and fair election,” he said.
The political scientist noted that the coalition’s strength lies in its unity of purpose, while disunity is its major weakness.
“As far as I’m concerned, the coalition, like I’ve always said, strength lies in their unity of purpose. What do they want to do? They want to send Tinubu packing by 2027. They need a united front to do that and unseat President Tinubu. President Tinubu is a core politician who understands the game well. So, unseating him, which is possible, can only be done with a united front.
“What do I mean by a united front? A united front that can defeat Tinubu is the one, first, that all these parties that are in this coalition should have one primary focus, of bringing an acceptable presidential candidate, especially to the younger generation that are in very high numbers in the electoral process,” the scholar said.
According to him, the opposition coalition’s sure way of realising its ambition of unseating Tinubu is to field Peter Obi from the southern part of the country as a presidential candidate.
“In summary, the coalition’s strength lies in having a strong presidential candidate, Peter Obi, from the south to run for president,” he said.
Two, the coalition members are also experienced politicians who understand the game. Some have worked closely with Bola Ahmed Tinubu and understand the game like he does.
Dr Christian Okeke, a political science lecturer at the Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, in Anambra state, said: “A Coalition or any form of coming together of interested Nigerians can unseat the administration of Tinubu in 2027 and end this suffering.
“It does not need to be a merger as was witnessed in 2013. That one was an expedient arrangement, as at that time, whose mission was well delivered.
However, leader of two prominent CSOs, Transparency International (TI), the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) and the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), Awwal Musa Rafsanjani said the while the coalition has the potential of spring surprises in the 2027 polls, it also does not come out with different key deliverables that Nigerians should hold them to account.
Rafsanjani said the coalition is expected to focus on intensifying efforts to galvanise all the opposition parties to engage.
“First and foremost, it is another development in terms of putting together a strong opposition to the ruling party and creating a vibrant opposition, just like the APC was formed to carry out a massive campaign to ensure that they take power from the ruling party in 2015.
“However, it is expected that this coalition is going to focus on ensuring that they carry out well-intensified efforts to ensure that all the opposition parties and all the individuals who are working towards fighting for democracy and fighting for what they do not think is ideal for democracy in the country will be galvanised to engage.
“However, just like the APC when it came into power to rescue power from the ruling party, the then PDP, it was not based on any ideology or based on any shared value other than just coming together to take power.
Also, the advocacy officer of West Africa Democracy Solidarity Network (WADEMOS Network), Austin Aigbe, said what is happening right now in Nigeria’s political landscape resembles what happened ahead of the 2015 elections when political parties began to organise themselves. Eventually, from 2013 to 2014, people thought it would not make any significant difference.
According to him, all Nigerians hear today from the ruling party is from the then-ruling party, the PDP.
APC Remains Upbeat
In the face of mounting opposition, the APC seems upbeat about the 2027 general election, declaring no vacancy in the villa.
APC swiftly reacted to the opposition coalition’s adoption of ADC as a platform and said the ruling party and President Tinubu are undisturbed and focused on using all available bricks to build a stronger, enduring, and more prosperous nation for present and future generations of Nigerians.
APC national publicity secretary Felix Morka said coalition members remain preoccupied with swimming in mud and throwing bricks while the APC runs its government in the nation’s interest.
Morka said the coalition is populated by persons who “cannot bear to be out of the corridors of power and patronage, who are desperate to grab power for themselves by guile and subterfuge, who lay claim to an immoral birthright to power, even while draped in odious record of betrayal of public trust, and rapacious public service.”
“What key alternative policy approaches would the coalition implement, and with what prospects of success compared to the high value and transformative impact of the administration’s reform policies? What exactly is the philosophical or ideological leaning of the coalition or its new party, aside from desperation for power at all costs, necessary and unnecessary?
“They must think Nigerians to be gullible and uncritical. Quite to the contrary, Nigerians are highly perceptive and discerning and will not be taken in by the coalition’s grand folly,” the APC Spokesman added.
Earlier in the week, APC said the former Governor of Kaduna state, Nasir El-Rufai and his partners in ADC are the most confused, clueless, rudderless and pitiful opposition politicians the country has ever known.
According to the ruling party, those politicians bring nothing to the political table except their oversized ego, wild entitlement mentality, obscene desperation and predatory presidential ambitions.
The APC national publicity secretary, Felix Morka, stated, “Since his failed bid for a ministerial appointment, El-Rufai has gone into a political tailspin. ”
Morka said beyond baseless headline attacks against the present administration and the APC, the former Kaduna governor and cohorts have not presented and cannot present policy prescriptions with potential for more effectiveness than those already being implemented by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, with strong indicators of success.
He said, “It is now clear to all Nigerians that El-Rufai and his cohorts in ADC are on a mission to upend the presidential rotational principle designed to promote national unity and cohesion in the country through the imposition of Atiku as presidential candidate of ADC in the middle of a southern presidency rotation.
“It was Atiku’s selfish and obdurate refusal to respect the rotation principle during the 2023 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential primary election that directly resulted in PDP’s virtual cremation. El-Rufai and Atiku want to do to Nigeria what Atiku did to the PDP. El-Rufai, Atiku and the hijacked ADC constitute a clear and present threat to Nigeria’s unity, peace and progress.
“Nigeria is witnessing an era of visionary and transformational leadership under President Bola Tinubu. The administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda has fundamentally repositioned our nation for steady growth and progress.
“We are confident that Nigerians will sustain their support for our great Party and renew President Tinubu’s mandate come 2027, to consolidate on what now looks to be the most outstanding first term record of achievement of any President in our nation’s history.”
APC Governors
The group, led by Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, declared that ADC and other opposition parties are no match for the ruling party ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Uzodinma, in company with his Kogi state counterpart, Governor Usman Ododo, at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja, said there are only two political parties in Nigeria: APC and others.
Asked about his take on the ADC’s claim that having the APC government after the 2027 election would be disastrous, Uzodinma said, “You called it a claim. It is their claim, not our claim. “I know there are only two parties in Nigeria, the All Progressive Congress and others.”
