As the federal government digs in to implement its economic reforms which have left many Nigerians grappling for survival below the poverty line, renown public policy adviser, Nextier, has advised it on ways to avert the disenchantment from snowballing into major national crisis or mass protests.
Researchers at Nextier in a new report over the weekend recalled its earlier analysis linking worsening poverty to increased insecurity, with the question: “Would the Worsening Poverty Increase Insecurity in Nigeria”.
They that such a scenario is now playing out by way of street protests and violence in Kenya, occasioned by grievances over escalating costs of living.
Nextier is advising the Bola Tinubu administration to quickly check unemployment and dwindling productivity, while ensuring that the N500 billion earmarked for subsidy removal cash-transfer palliative reaches the most vulnerable Nigerian households for maximum impact.
According to Nextier, “in Nigeria today, the present economic reforms have caused financial pressure for millions of Nigerians and other residents, at least in the short term. This ranges from the elimination of fuel subsidy to increases in taxes.
“The repercussions of fuel subsidy removal and the speculated intended increase in energy tariffs have generated great confusion and misery across the country, especially in the informal sector, which employs most people.
“Thus, with the economic crunch and unavailable cushioning effects, it beckons to question at what point would the breaking point be.”
Nextier experts therefore recommended that “the Nigerian government should prioritise addressing how fiscal and monetary policies affect employment, prices and productivity to reduce the number of people pushed below the poverty line.
“By reducing aggravated poverty, there is a reduced tendency for resorting to violence.
“With the National Assembly’s approval of President Bola Tinubu’s N500-billion request for palliatives, there is a need to ensure that the cash transfer reaches the most vulnerable households and attains maximum impact.
“However, beyond the palliatives to the 12 million households, are looking at investing in social and public facilities like urban mass transits, primary healthcare driven drugs provision scheme, agro-communities’s road and transportation system and a searchlight on the entire marketing, pricing and distribution of petroleum products in Nigeria.
“Also, there is a need to introduce other non-monetary and sustainable measures for cushioning current economic pressures in Nigeria.”
They buttressed their point by recalling that “Kenya conducted a fairly peaceful but highly contested election in September 2022, ushering in a smooth power transition. While exemplary of the democratic process for other African nations, aftermath events have proven destabilising.
“The country witnessed a rise in public disorder between March and April 2023. This disorder originated from mass opposition-led demonstrations majorly organised by the Azimio Coalition premised on disputed elections and the high cost of living.
“The unrest has been stoked by the opposition leader, who categorically called for weekly nationwide protests, which have often taken a violent turn.
“More recently, the row over the high cost of living has led to the second round of demonstrations within a week, killing at least six people.”
Therefore, “with the Kenya riots blowing out of proportion claiming lives and injuring as many, it is important to state that the high cost of living through various reforms is pushing more people below the poverty line.
“This may pose devastating effects in Nigeria, as seen in the violent protests in Kenya. Although Nigeria’s trajectory from the reforms can be seen through increased insecurity, one cannot rule out the possibility of violent protests breaking out if conditions worsen.
“With the ongoing violent protests in Kenya largely emanating from economic policies, Nigeria could draw from the occurrence in Kenya to avert a full-blown crisis.
‘The Tinubu-led administration should look beyond the politics in Kenya and focus on the negating factors that have pushed civilians to the streets. These factors are inflation, high cost of living, and high unemployment”, the Nextier report added.
