After a politics-centric 2023, year 2024 is expected to be governance focused. But this year will also be one of power consolidation by those who occupy public offices.
This year will largely reveal the complexion of the President Bola Tinubu administration at national, and the stuff most states governors are made of.
However, checks by LEADERSHIP revealed that some policies, politics amid inherited challenges would shape the actions of the federation government this year.
Security
The security crisis in the country will be topical this year. This comes on the back of two major incidences that happened at the end of last year – the accidental bombing in Kaduna State and the Christmas Eve killing in Plateau State. Both incidents recorded massive casaulties.
Although, the Tinubu administration would be inheriting a more than decade long security crisis, he would be expected to make a difference, especially as the oppositionPeoples Democratic Party (PDP) already claims that about 5,000 Nigerians have been killed since he took office on May 29, 2023.
Economy
Naira Depreciation
The value of the naira had plummeted to never before levels, affecting every facet of life and bringing inflation figures in the country to decades high.
The value of the naira which depreciated in value significantly went from N450 to the dollar at the official end and N750 to the dollar at the parallel market to selling at N1200 on the streets and hovers between N950 and N1000 at the official end of the market.
The foreign exchange (FX) market trading closed for the year on Friday with naira losing 96.55 per cent of its value against the dollar at the official market.
At the end of 2023 trading, naira depreciated by 96.55 percent year-on-year as the dollar was quoted at N907.11 on Friday compared to N461.61 quoted at the end of 2022 at the Nigeria Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), data compiled from the FMDQ indicated.
On a day to day basis, naira appreciated by 13.04 percent as the dollar was quoted at N907.11 on Friday as against N1,043.09 on Thursday.
Willing buyers and willing sellers quoted the dollar as high as N1,224.10 on Friday stronger than N1,235.65 quoted on the spot trading on Thursday.
The lower rate strengthened to N700 on Friday from N720/$ quoted on the spot on Thursday.
Naira fell to N1,043.09 per dollar on Thursday after depreciating to an all-time low of N1,099/$1 on December 8, 2023.
At the parallel market, also known as black market, naira lost 62.16 percent or N460 per dollar as the dollar was sold for N1,200 on Friday the last trading day of 2023 from N740 in 2022.
Inflation
Inflation which was at 21.82 per cent at the beginning of the year has so far risen to 28.2 per cent as at November this year, an indication that the rate at which prices of goods and services are rising is faster than it used to.
Global inflation is forecasted to steadily decline from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 6.9 per cent in 2023 and 5.8 per cent in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy measures and lower international commodity prices.
Whilst the Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN has consistently hiked benchmark interest rate to curb the spiralling inflation, which has steadily headed north, the Governor of the CBN, Dr Olayemi Cardoso had said the apex bank under his leadership will be focusing on using orthodox methods to bring down the level of inflation in the country.
The scarcity of foreign exchange hit hard on manufacturers in the country throughout the year.
The president of Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Otunba Francis Meshioye said that “currently, the cost of manufacturing is daily rising owing to scarce and unavailable manufacturing inputs that continue to shrink profitability and threaten the existence of the critical sector of the economy. More worrisome is the fact that the sector that should propel job creation, productivity, and economic growth is enmeshed with a series of challenges that constantly limit its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product.”
He explained that such challenges as epileptic power supply, insecurity, inadequate infrastructure, shortage of forex and naira depreciation are prevailing issues that are impacting negatively on the sector, saying that “if Nigeria manufacturers will compete effectively, then a comprehensive and concerted effort needs to be deployed by the government to overtake the binding constraints that limit local production and then seek to attract foreign investment that will bring about a reduction in the forex chase and ensure sufficient forex inflow that the country clearly requires.
“With a new administration steering the seat of governance, it is pertinent that all hands must be on deck to achieve a vibrant economy that can compete favourably. To start with, the government needs to prioritise investment in infrastructure and power, combat insecurity and corruption as well as introduce incentive policies that would make domestic production more attractive as against the importation of finished products.”
Also, president of Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Asiwaju Michael Olawale-Cole recommended that the federal government needs to focus on addressing the security challenges that have plagued the business community and negatively affected investment inflows, saying “our hope is that this new political era will witness a marked improvement in terms of the state and fate of national security in Nigeria.”
National Debt
On the National debt, he said “the government should explore other avenues to manage debt, including opening equity opportunities and offloading/selling off some of its real estate holdings.
“The government should also intensify its effort to deal with insecurity, oil theft, and vandalism, as well as block all revenue leakages in government institutions.
“These actions will increase revenue and lessen the propensity to borrow. If the government had done this earlier, our debt stock would have been very limited.”
Pending Governorship Cases
Some key states to look out for so far are Kano, Zamfara and Plateau. The ruling of the Appeal Court has not gone favourably for the incumbents.
Interestingly, these are all states currently under the leadership of the opposition parties. PDP controls Plateau and Zamfara State while NNPP controls Kano.
PDP, LP, NNPP
The nature of the opposition will be revealed this year. This will reflect largely on the quality of opposition they will provide.
However, while talks of a possible merge/alliance among PDP, Labour Party and NNPP, has been hinted at (amid denials), the intra-party squabbles within these parties will be instructive.
In PDP, the main opposition party, the tussle between the bloc loyal to former vice president Atiku Abubakar, and that loyal to Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister, Nyesom Wike, will rage.
Whether or not the current National Working Committee (NWC) led by Amb Illiya Damagum will retain it’s position will depend on the outcome of the tussle.
In Labour Party, the camps loyal to Julius Abure and Lamidi Apapa, will continue to do battle. In NNPP, the camps loyal to the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has been in battle with that of the founder and chairman, Board of Trustees (BoT) Boniface Aniebonam.
Rivers, Benue Tussle
President Tinubu’s intervention in the Governor Siminalayi Fubara versus Wike tussle over the control of power structures in Rivers State, last year, seem shaky. The seeming hesitance to follow through with most of provisions in the eight-item deal, indicates that the last is far from being heard about this friction.
However, in Benue State, the cold war between Governor Hyacinth Alia and secretary to the government of the federation, Senator George Akume will also unfold.
Federal lawmakers from the state had late last year called on the president to intervene in the simmering friction, signalling a delicate political situation in the APC in the state.
