El Niño, a complex climate phenomenon characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, has profound implications for global weather patterns. Its impacts in Nigeria are particularly notable, influencing weather conditions, agricultural productivity, water resources, public health, and socio-economic stability. This explores the multifaceted effects of El Niño on Nigeria, emphasizing the unprecedented challenges it poses and the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.
El Niño significantly disrupts Nigeria’s weather patterns, leading to deviations from the norm in rainfall and temperature. Typically, Nigeria experiences two distinct rainy seasons: the primary season from March to July and the secondary season from September to November. However, during El Niño years, these patterns become highly erratic. For instance, the 2015-2016 El Niño event resulted in severe droughts in northern Nigeria, drastically reducing rainfall and causing prolonged dry spells. In contrast, the southern regions often experience excessive rainfall and flooding.
These weather anomalies have far-reaching consequences. The irregularity in rainfall affects the timing and quantity of agricultural output, as farmers rely heavily on predictable weather patterns for planting and harvesting. The unpredictability brought about by El Niño complicates planning and increases the risk of crop failure, threatening food security across the country.
Agriculture, a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, employing about 70% of the population and contributing significantly to the GDP, is particularly vulnerable to El Niño-induced climatic changes. The country’s staple crops, including maize, millet, and sorghum, are highly sensitive to variations in water availability. During El Niño-induced droughts, these crops suffer substantial losses due to insufficient water for growth and development. For example, the 2015-2016 El Niño caused maize production to plummet, exacerbating food insecurity and raising food prices.Conversely, excessive rainfall and flooding in other parts of the country lead to waterlogged soils, which can damage crops and delay planting schedules. Flooding also promotes the spread of pests and diseases, further compromising agricultural yields. These dual threats underscore the necessity for climate-resilient agricultural practices, such as the development and adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties, improved irrigation techniques, and sustainable farming practices to buffer against climatic variability.
El Niño places significant stress on Nigeria’s water resources. Drought conditions result in decreased water levels in rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, affecting both urban and rural communities. This scarcity impacts domestic water supply, agricultural irrigation, and hydropower generation, leading to energy shortages and increased reliance on fossil fuels. Moreover, reduced water flow disrupts aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, with long-term consequences for the environment.In urban areas, water scarcity often leads to rationing and conflicts over water access. Rural communities, dependent on natural water sources, face severe challenges in accessing clean water for drinking, sanitation, and agriculture. The reduced availability of water exacerbates health risks, including waterborne diseases such as cholera and dysentery, which become more prevalent during periods of scarcity.
El Niño’s impact on public health in Nigeria is profound. Prolonged dry spells and water scarcity increase the risk of waterborne diseases, as communities struggle to access clean and safe drinking water. Cholera outbreaks, for example, are more common during these periods, placing additional strain on the healthcare system. The lack of adequate water for hygiene and sanitation further compounds these health risks, leading to higher incidence rates of diarrheal diseases.On the other hand, excessive rainfall and flooding create ideal breeding conditions for mosquitoes, leading to outbreaks of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. These health challenges highlight the need for improved water management and robust disease surveillance and control systems to mitigate the public health impacts of El Niño.
The socio-economic impacts of El Niño in Nigeria are extensive, exacerbating poverty and inequality. The agricultural sector’s vulnerability to climatic shocks leads to reduced income for farmers, increased food prices, and heightened food insecurity. Rural communities, where livelihoods are predominantly agriculture-based, are disproportionately affected, facing increased economic hardship and reduced resilience to future shocks.
Urban areas are not immune to these impacts. Food price inflation and water shortages affect the urban poor, increasing the cost of living and reducing disposable income. This situation often leads to social unrest and migration pressures, as people move in search of better living conditions and employment opportunities.
Moreover, El Niño-induced climatic disruptions can exacerbate existing conflicts over scarce resources such as water and arable land. In Nigeria, where inter-communal and farmer-herder conflicts are already prevalent, the additional stress from climate variability can escalate tensions and contribute to instability. These socio-economic challenges underscore the importance of developing comprehensive and inclusive policies that address the root causes of vulnerability and promote resilience across all sectors of society.
– Oladosu Adebola Oluwaseun is an environmental journalist and a Post graduate student of the International Institute of Journalism (IIJ)