Edo Guber: PDP’s Support Base Swelled After Defections – Report

Ahead of the September 21, 2024 Edo State Governorship election, a survey report by the Center for Electoral Participation in Nigeria (CEP), said the electoral support for Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Dr. Asue Ighodalo, increased after the defection of former deputy governor, Comrade Philip Shaibu and his loyalists, from PDP.

The report released on Tuesday, July 23, 2024 after a two weeks survey of voter enthusiasm across the 18 local government areas of Edo State evaluated the general perception of registered voters on candidates of political parties in the coming election.

According to the survey document signed by CEP team lead, Dr. Kingsley Osunbo, the survey focused on voter enthusiasm in the September 21, 2024 Edo State governorship election as well as interest, support for and connection with the manifestoes of candidates of respective political parties in the election.

The report indicated that respondents are conversant with three political parties; the PDP, All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party (LP) with the PDP and its candidate having higher public awareness level and followership across the 18 Local Government Areas.

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An accompanying survey poll on candidates’ support base also indicated that the PDP candidate, Ighodalo, is in the lead at 5.2 points followed by APC’s Monday Okpehbolo at 3.3 and LP’s Olumide Akpata at 1.5 based on voter connection with manifesto, campaign penetration, candidate’s carriage and party affiliations.

Along rating criteria, most respondents irrespective of Party affiliation voted the PDP candidate as “most campaigning candidate”, “most issue-based campaigning candidate”, most people-connected candidate”, candidate with “most people-based manifesto” and candidate with “strongest Party strength” in the election.

Interestingly, CEP report showed a sharp rise in voter interest and support for the PDP candidate in the last one week of heated political events in the state including the affirmation of Ighodalo as PDP candidate by the courts, the exit of Philip Shaibu from the PDP to the APC and APC’s alleged complicity in the violent clash that led to the killing of a policeman in Benin City last Thursday.

Many respondents including members of the PDP who, as Mr. Shaibu’s supporters were hitherto opposed to Ighodalo’s candidacy are now in full support of the PDP candidate after the return of Philip Shaibu to the APC. They cited loyalty to the PDP as reason for their decision.

The report also revealed a significant support shift from the APC to the PDP after Mr. Shaibu’s return to the APC as more APC members register their aversion to his return to the Party.

Further analysis of the survey showed that most of the non-partisan respondents had connected with Ighodalo after the affirmation of his candidacy by the Court and exit of Mr. Shaibu from the PDP.

CEP Team Lead said the survey was carried out in strict adherence to international best practices of objectivity, confidentiality and spread.