IPCR Launches Strategic Conflict Assessment Document

The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) has unveiled a Strategic Conflict Assessment (SCA) document aimed at addressing violence stemming from insecurity, farmer-herder clashes, terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, and insurgency across vulnerable communities in the North East, South-South, North Central, and South West regions of Nigeria.

Speaking during the unveiling in Abuja on Thursday, the Director General of IPCR, Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, emphasized that the document would strengthen Nigeria’s early warning system, inform government and civil society programming, and shape future peacebuilding policies nationwide.

Dr. Ochogwu highlighted the launch as a testament to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, aimed at achieving zero tolerance for insecurity across the country.

He noted that the Institute has been conducting this flagship research since 2003. “There were gaps, particularly in the last six to seven years, where the report was not produced,” he said. “But today, we are proud to present an 859-page document that provides a comprehensive conflict analysis of the entire Nigerian federation.”

According to him, the study is empirically informed, with researchers thoroughly investigating conflict trends, dynamics, actors, triggers, historical background, and previous resolutions—both governmental and non-governmental.

He said, “ The findings have now been codified and presented to the public and relevant stakeholders, including both state and non-state actors responsible for conflict prevention, management, and resolution.

“One unique aspect of this study,” he added, “is that the 2024 Strategic Conflict Assessment of Nigeria was entirely conducted by IPCR. No external consultants or international partners were involved. It is a wholly indigenous product.”

Dr. Ochogwu described the study as a creative and innovative approach to delivering IPCR’s mandate despite limited resources. The document covers all 36 states of Nigeria and the Federal Capital Territory, analyzing all 774 local government areas, zone by zone.

He noted that the study offers fresh insights into Nigeria’s conflict landscape, highlighting both similarities and distinct local contexts across regions.

“For instance, the nature of farmer-herder crises in one state may differ significantly from those in another.

“That’s why it’s essential for interveners to consult the document to understand each conflict zone’s specific context,” he said.

He further emphasized the importance of the evidence-based nature of the research. “Another notable aspect of this work is that it was done without any donor support. It is funded solely by the Federal Government and delivered entirely by our researchers.”

Dr. Ochogwu acknowledged the widespread liberalization and proliferation of violence in Nigeria, saying the study captures the various forms of violence and helps identify appropriate management strategies. “Some forms of violence require kinetic (military) approaches, while others necessitate addressing root causes, such as youth unemployment.”

“In many rural areas, there is a significant population of unemployed youth who are also disinterested in farming—a situation that needs to change. We must begin to develop strategic solutions to resolve these complex conflicts nationwide.”

He revealed that a National Action Plan would be developed from the findings of the study and shared with the government. “Conflict is a cross-cutting, multi-sectoral issue. What we’ve done here is to fulfill our research mandate by producing an evidence-based account of Nigeria’s conflict ecosystem.”

Dr. Ochogwu expressed gratitude to the research team, saying, “On behalf of the Institute’s management, I want to thank the team who coordinated the study from start to finish—including those involved in the fieldwork and reporting phases.”

He recommended the document to all stakeholders—government and non-government actors alike—and appealed to international development partners to consult the findings before designing their programs. “It’s important that your interventions align with the empirical evidence presented in this study.”

He also urged those using kinetic strategies to study the document carefully. “There is a general decline in reading, even among intellectuals, due to mobile phone usage. But this study is a must-read for peacebuilders and conflict resolution practitioners across Nigeria.”

The IPCR plans to produce a condensed version of the document in soft copy to facilitate wider access by universities, colleges of education, research institutions, and interested partners.

“One of the challenges we’ve observed is that many so-called experts are misinterpreting Nigeria’s conflict landscape. What this Strategic Conflict Assessment offers is empirically grounded, evidence-based insight,” he concluded.