The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AREET) has warned that further attacks against Dangote Petroleum Refinery could negatively affect Nigeria’s economy.
AREET disclosed this in a statement on Thursday, which was signed by its chairman, Dele Kelvin Oye. According to the group, any disruption to the refinery’s operations could force Nigeria back to costly fuel imports, widen the trade deficit, deplete foreign reserves, and pressure the foreign exchange market.
The group spoke against the backdrop of the recent standoff between the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and the management of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, warning that such a crisis could trigger an economic and energy crisis capable of reversing Nigeria’s fragile recovery.
The group noted that the Dangote Refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, was intended to end decades of reliance on imported refined petroleum products and anchor economic stability.
According to Oye, resorting to strike actions in the sector at this time as a result of labour dispute will be tantamount to a severe asymmetric shock to energy security and macroeconomic stability, stressing that such a strike threatens to plunge the country into fuel shortages, inflationary spikes, capital flight and loss of investor confidence.
He pointed out that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had only recently reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.5 to 27 per cent, citing easing inflation and improved external reserves of about $42 billion.
He said, “Those fragile gains, he cautioned, could quickly evaporate if refinery operations remain crippled, leading to fuel scarcity, rising transport and power costs, a fresh wave of inflation and possible reversal of monetary policy. Nigeria stands at an inflection point.
“The Dangote Refinery represents a generational opportunity to pivot away from fuel import dependence. A protracted industrial action that impedes its operation risks reversing the modest but hard-won macroeconomic gains. Only a mediated, transparent resolution that credibly investigates sabotage claims, restores fair employment processes and secures continuous refinery operations can protect livelihoods, investment and national recovery.’’
