OPEC Targets 137,000bpd Crude Output Hike For November

Top producer members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have agreed to raise their collective output ceiling by another 137,000 b/d in November.

“In view of a steady global economic outlook, and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 bpd from the 1.65 million bpd additional voluntary adjustments,” the OPEC secretariat said.

The decision comes as the group — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — began to unwind 1.65mn b/d of voluntary cuts this month, starting with an initial 137,000 bpd hike in their collective production target.

The 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut was agreed in April 2023 and originally included a small contribution from Gabon, which is not part of the latest plan to restore output.

The move reflects a continuation of the cautious approach that the group has taken going into the fourth quarter of this year — a time when the world typically enters a seasonal lull in oil demand. The IEA has projected sizeable surpluses not just in the fourth quarter of this year, but also in 2026.

Accordingly, the group maintained deliberate ambiguity on production guidance beyond the coming month, just as it did at its previous meeting in September.

Delegate sources told Argus media that during the meeting, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman openly asked Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak whether there had been any discussions or consultations on policy beyond November, and specifically whether any talks had been had around volumes other than the 137,000 bpd discussed and agreed today. Novak confirmed to the others in the group that no such consultations had occurred.

With concerns around oversupply lingering, some delegate sources questioned whether additional barrels were required before the meeting, arguing that the market is already “well supplied.” However, delegate sources told Argus that today’s decision was made swiftly without formal opposition.

“Let us continue returning those remaining barrels and see how markets react,” one delegate told Argus.

“We can act accordingly as we retain considerable flexibility now,” the delegate added.

The group of eight has turned its attention to the 1.65mn b/d cut after completing last month the unwind of a separate 2.2mn b/d cut that was agreed in November 2023.

ICE Brent crude futures closed at $64.53/bl on 3 October, down by just $1/bl since the group last met in early September.

But as has been the case since the group began unwinding these cuts in April, the actual production increase in November is likely to fall short of the headline 137,000 b/d agreed today, both because of ongoing compensation obligations by past over-producers, and upstream and midstream bottlenecks in some member countries such as Russia.

Argus estimates that the group restored only 1.35mn b/d of production between April and August, far short of the notional 1.92mn b/d that the collective quotas rose by over this period. Since January, Opec+ production rose by 1.8mn b/d.