Experts Forecast Positive Economic Outlook In 2026, Say Reforms Must Continue

Economists and industry experts have expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026, as sustained reforms, policy consistency, and continued government-private sector collaboration must continue to drive growth and competitiveness.

They stated this at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) 2026 Economic Review and Outlook Conference.

President of the LCCI, Leye Kupoluyi, said that amid rising uncertainty and disruptions, the business community requires timely economic intelligence and industry insights to guide decision-making and action.

Kupoluyi noted that 2026 stands at the intersection of reform, resilience and renewed opportunity.

“An examination of major economic indicators from recent quarters of 2025 reveals a period of challenging reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, adjustments in the foreign exchange market, tighter monetary policy and institutional restructuring.

“While these reforms imposed short-term costs, they are laying the foundation for a more transparent, market-driven and resilient economy,” he said.

Looking ahead, Kupoluyi described the 2026 outlook as one of measured optimism, saying that economic growth was expected to improve moderately, driven by sectors such as agriculture, construction, energy, telecommunications and the digital economy.

He added that interest rates were expected to ease gradually as inflation moderates, creating room for private-sector credit expansion.

The managing director, Research and Trade Intelligence at the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Dr Yemi Kale said Nigeria had the potential to triple its intra-African exports by 2030 with the right policies under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Kale, however, noted that awareness of the AfCFTA among Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) remained below 30 per cent, with limited onboarding and participation by the broader private sector.

He said Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook for 2026 reflects a transition toward AfCFTA-enabled, non-oil-led growth, anchored in services expansion, diversified exports, improved external balances, and rising intra-African investment.

According to him, Nigeria’s success under the AfCFTA will depend not only on domestic reforms, but also on how effectively it leverages AfCFTA institutions, shapes emerging protocols, exercises regional leadership and mobilises the private sector.

Kale maintained that the country’s economic outlook remained positive, provided reform momentum is sustained, and implementation is properly sequenced.

The chief executive officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba said sustained reforms could lead to a doubling of economic growth, pointing to improved exchange rate stability, easing inflationary pressures and the positive impact of cost-reflective energy sector reforms, despite global economic headwinds.

He, however, urged the government to address low federal revenue, cautioning against aggressive tax expansion as the economy recovers, and called for reduced reliance on debt financing.

Teriba advocated equity-based financing, non-oil revenue diversification and bankable capital projects to attract domestic and foreign direct investment, expressing optimism that economic gains would strengthen further in 2026.

He also urged policymakers to complement foreign portfolio inflows with sustained foreign direct investment to ensure long-term economic stability and growth.

“The government must deliberately move away from over-dependence on debt financing. Nigeria must look beyond oil, taxes and borrowing,” he said.

The special adviser to the President on Economic Affairs, Tope Fasua, also expressed optimism about Nigeria’s economic outlook, citing stronger prospects for the manufacturing sector and improving fundamentals across key productive areas, including agriculture.

Fasua said the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio of about 40 per cent remained within a manageable range and could be strategically leveraged to support growth.

He noted that manufacturing exports had recorded measurable growth, reflecting early gains from recent reforms and improved competitiveness in selected value chains.

“Nigeria is targeting six to eight per cent GDP growth this year, anchored on transparent implementation of tax laws, which could significantly reshape the economy,” he said.

Chairman, Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Taiwo Oyedele said the tax reforms would address inequity and promote shared prosperity, thereby stimulating inclusive growth and enhancing competitiveness.

Oyedele said the reforms would reduce business risks, lower tax burdens, create a more competitive tax regime, provide economic reliefs, enhance revenue mobilisation and strengthen fiscal sustainability.

He urged Nigerians to plan by assessing the overall impact of the reforms, investing in training and capacity development, and developing action plans to minimise challenges and maximise opportunities.