Can We Quench The Fire That Might Start In Mali?

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – three rogue states that have formed an Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) to resist external pressure from ECOWAS on military rule – have just won the biggest diplomatic jackpot beyond their wildest imagination.

Not even a sorcerer would have guessed that, as a reward for their delinquency, this trio would receive support, endorsement actually, from the dominant power in the world since World War 2 – the United States. But much better than prodigals, they are about to receive flowers for their waywardness.

According to the BBC, Nick Checker, head of the US State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, would visit Mali’s capital, Bamako, to convey the United States’ “respect for Mali’s sovereignty” and chart a “new course” in relations, moving “past policy missteps.” The statement adds that the US also looks forward to cooperating with Mali’s allies, neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, “on shared security and economic interests.”

New possibilities or what?

Forget the diplomatese and sugar-coating! This is a declaration of intent, and it states, even in its nebulous ambiguity, that the US has cut all pretences and will do or undo business with anyone, anywhere, without hesitation, on a whim. The days of thoughtful, considered diplomacy are over.

In Niger, the military junta of General Abdourahamane Tchiani had expelled 800 US troops from the large drone base Washington had built in Agadez, after the Biden administration demanded a roadmap to restore democracy in Niamey.

Trump may well roll back the tanks with a deal, any deal to undercut or compete with Russia and its Wagner agents, Niger’s new super ally, while France remains bitter, despised and stranded.

To spite France for President Emmanuel Macron’s condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin had launched a foray into Francophone West Africa. President Donald Trump might well have taken a leaf from the Kremlin’s playbook after Macron censured his Greenland fantasy.

This massive oxygen tank from the most unlikely quarters is a boost not just for delinquents elsewhere, but also for a whole new phase of America’s transactional politics, thanks to President Trump, the deal-maker who strikes deals without moral or institutional qualms. Even the saying, “no sentiment in business,” was never such an absolute Machiavellian riposte.

The price of delinquency

But it’s not only the global powers that may need to reset their interests. The way things are going, the ECOWAS, which has had a torrid time convincing the military leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger that coup-making is unacceptable, now has to contend with America warming to Mali and co.

The trio’s exit has had real negative consequences for the affected countries and the subregion as a whole. Although there isn’t sufficient quantitative data yet, the three countries, with an estimated combined population of 73 million, comprise 15 percent of ECOWAS’ total population, 50 percent of its landmass, and contribute about 7 per cent of its GDP. Even though they are landlocked, losing them has impacted the size of the regional market.

In Niger, one of America’s potential new brides, food prices have risen by an estimated 21 percent, while the country’s budget has fallen by about 40 percent due to regional sanctions. In the region as a whole, household mobility and intra-regional trade have decreased, as have the numbers of migrant workers, students, and families who regularly move across borders for work, education, or healthcare.

Diplomatic efforts to bring them back have failed, either bungled in haste or sabotaged by the new military leaders, who have little appetite, if any, for a return to civilian rule. Why make peace when war is an option?

Cauldron game

This is the cauldron into which we must now factor the Trump administration’s opportunism. Instead of mediating the crisis in a way that benefits ECOWAS and the US, the president decides to rub salt in the subregion’s wound.

It would be interesting to see how the subregion responds, especially since it has nothing near the gift of cunning or leverage that Europe used to dissuade Trump from grabbing Greenland. Before the rapprochement, the US had placed the three AES members on its comprehensive travel ban list, a measure the countries immediately reciprocated.

Does this “new course” mean a reversal of the US “missteps” which also affect Sierra Leone, while seven ECOWAS members, including Nigeria, are on the partial ban list?

Mum is the word

There’s yet no official response to the indications of back-pedalling by the US, either from the AES, ECOWAS or the AU. One clear thing, though, is that such a step will further drive a wedge between the subregion and its delinquent states. However, it is unlikely that they would gamble their present relationship with Russia, warts and all, for a roller-coaster ride with the US.

The motive of the US is not a stable, cohesive, interdependent subregion capable of deepening trade and cooperation. It’s yet another subversive attempt by Trump’s administration to smash, grab and convert any critical resources that it can find at any cost.

A variant of this strategy first played out with South Africa, where Trump insisted on a non-existent “White genocide” to create discord, and then later in Nigeria, where he used the excuse of a “Christian genocide” to raise sectarian tensions.

Subversion as diplomacy

His administration appears to have gone up a notch, with covert meetings between leaders of Alberta separatists, committed to breaking away from Canada, and members of the U.S. State Department.

Administration officials claim that the meetings have involved a civil society group, and not official members of the separatist movement. Yet, Trump’s unrelenting covetousness has made it difficult for some to believe that this is not in furtherance of his Project 51st US State.

While the Trump administration’s interest in Alberta may also be to spook “stubborn” Prime Minister Mark Carney, the common thread between Alberta and the Sahel is critical minerals. The military leaders in the AES know that with this US president, business trumps rogue politics. They have spurned any idea of a political transition and are instead preparing for a lifetime in office.

Disregard for democratic values that might have concerned the US in a former life is no longer an issue. In the current dispensation, if it’s not critical minerals – which the Sahelian states have in abundance – or the promise of a nice piece of real estate, forget it.

The fire next time

Captain Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso has scrapped the legal framework that allowed multiparty democracy and dissolved all political parties. At the same time, the reports from Bamako and Niamey do not indicate any immediate plans to return to civil rule. The current mood in the world’s major power centres does not suggest any need for haste.

The rogue states can take their time, as we wait for the fire of diplomacy by subversion to make its next fall.