National Grid-connected Power Plants’ Performance Dipped To 36% In January – NERC

Nigeria’s grid-connected power plants operated at just 36 per cent of their installed capacity in January 2026—down from 38% in December 2025—amid low generation availability and unstable system frequency, as revealed in the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) latest Operational Performance Factsheet released on Monday.

The report indicated a sharp mismatch between the country’s 13,625 megawatts total installed generation capacity and the average 4,901 megawatts available for dispatch in January (a 250 MW drop from December’s 5,151 MW), translating to a Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of 36 per cent.

Despite this decline, the grid absorbed most available power, with an Average Load Factor of 90 per cent, dispatching about 4,421 megawatt-hours per hour—up slightly from December’s 4,367 MW—and leaving minimal reserves.

The NERC report showed frequency deviations outside safe limits, with average lower grid frequency at 49.03Hz and upper at 50.66Hz—exceeding the prescribed 49.75Hz–50.25Hz range.

These issues highlight persistent operational weaknesses, rooted in underinvestment, ageing infrastructure, transmission bottlenecks, and delays in Presidential Power Initiative projects, raising risks of disturbances and outages.

NERC’s January 2026 factsheet shows that grid-connected power plants operated far below their installed capacity, reflecting ongoing availability challenges across the generation segment. Despite this, most of the power that was available was absorbed by the grid, leaving little operational buffer.

“The grid-connected plants recorded a Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of 36 per cent – at any time during the month, an average of 4,901 MW was available for dispatch into the grid,” NERC stated.

The average lower grid frequency (49.03Hz) and average upper grid frequency (50.66Hz) during the month exceeded the prescribed limits (49.75Hz–50.25Hz),” the commission noted.

According to the report, Nigeria’s total installed generation capacity stood at 13,625 megawatts, but only an average of 4,901 megawatts was available for dispatch during the month, translating to a PAF of 36 per cent.

The Average Load Factor, however, was recorded at 90 per cent, meaning about 4,421 megawatt-hours per hour of available power was dispatched and consumed, pointing to strong demand and limited reserves within the system.

Nigeria’s electricity challenges are deeply rooted in years of underinvestment, ageing infrastructure, and weak execution across the power value chain. Transmission, in particular, has remained a critical bottleneck, limiting the system’s ability to evacuate power and maintain stability.

Delays in completing key transmission projects under the Presidential Power Initiative have further constrained grid resilience.

These structural weaknesses have compounded generation constraints, increasing the likelihood of frequency deviations, system disturbances, and large-scale outages.

Key Insights

Availability dropped slightly, signaling persistent generation constraints like gas shortages or maintenance issues.

Higher utilisation in January reflects strong demand but thinner reserves, heightening grid instability risks.

Frequency issues persisted in both months, with January breaches at 49.03Hz (low) and 50.66Hz (high) vs. limits of 49.75–50.25Hz.