Industry Players Warn Oil Prices May Hit $150/b

ConocoPhillips chairman and CEO Ryan Lance, has issued a warning of possible more oil supply disruptions in the global market saying, “You just can’t take 8-to-10 million barrels a day (MMbpd) off the market, and 20 per cent of LNG supply, and not expect instability,”

Lance, made the remarks on Tuesday at CERAWeek by S&P Global, underscoring the scale of the current supply shock hitting global energy markets.

Also, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that oil prices could climb to $150 per barrel and trigger a global recession if Iran continues to pose a threat to regional stability after the current conflict ends.

Speaking in a leadership dialogue with S&P Global vice chairman, Daniel Yergin, Lance said that current turmoil in the Middle East has rapidly shifted the industry outlook, turning earlier concerns about weaker conditions into a fundamentally tighter market.

“A month ago, what were headwinds in the industry have now become tailwinds—it’s a completely different scenario,” he said, adding that companies are now reassessing mid-cycle price expectations as markets recalibrate.

Even before the latest disruption, ConocoPhillips had taken a longer-term view that tightening supply would require higher prices to support investment. “We were pretty constructive on growing demand for a long period of time, and we have questions about where the supply is going to come from,” Lance said. “The mid-cycle price probably has to rise over time to incentivize those investments.”

On U.S. production, Lance said shale output is expected to continue growing modestly in the near term, supported by efficiency gains, but may begin to level off. “We’ll probably see 200,000 barrels or so of more production… but definitely trending towards a plateau, given the current market conditions” he said, noting that gains are increasingly driven by improvements in drilling, completions and reservoir targeting.

Lance also addressed concerns around the U.S. LNG exports and domestic affordability, arguing that infrastructure—not resource availability—is the primary constraint. “It’s not a resource problem, it’s a connectivity problem,” he said, pointing to pipeline bottlenecks and permitting delays that limit the movement of natural gas to key demand centers.

Permitting timelines remain a major hurdle for project development, with Lance noting that large-scale projects can take longer to approve than to build. “It’s an industry where you can’t build infrastructure if it takes four or five years to get a permit,” he said, referencing delays tied to the company’s Willow project in Alaska.

Lance also struck a cautious tone on Venezuela, indicating that any return of large-scale investment will depend on significant fiscal and regulatory reforms, as well as resolution of longstanding financial disputes. ConocoPhillips is still seeking to recover $12 billion tied to the 2007 expropriation of its assets, which remains a prerequisite before committing new capital.

Despite near-term volatility, Lance said ConocoPhillips remains focused on long-cycle investments, including Alaska developments and LNG expansion, supported by what he described as a resource-rich portfolio in an increasingly supply-constrained world.

Meanwhile, Fink told BBC’s Big Boss Interview podcast published on Wednesday that sustained threats to trade and the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil prices above $100 and approaching $150 for years, with profound economic implications.

“If there is a cessation of war, and yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, a threat to this peaceful coexistence of the GCC region, then I would argue that we could have years of above $100 closer to $150 oil which has profound implications in the economy,” Fink said.

When asked about the impact of oil staying at $150 per barrel, Fink stated: “We will have global recession.”

Oil prices have shown sharp swings since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran started. On Wednesday, prices dropped about 4% after reports emerged that the U.S. had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war, raising the possibility of a ceasefire.

The conflict has nearly stopped shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about one-fifth of the world’s gas and crude supply. The International Energy Agency has described this as the biggest-ever oil supply disruption.