Persian Gulf Conflict Disrupts Global Food Supply Chains — FAO

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf is causing one of the fastest and most severe disruptions to global commodity flows in recent history.

Speaking at the UN Headquarters in New York , FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero, said the crisis is already impacting agricultural production and food security worldwide, affecting not only farmers but also migrant workers.

He stressed the urgency of resolving the conflict, noting that time is a critical factor.

“Timing is crucial, the clock is ticking, and a solution must be found quickly,” Torero said.

Since the outbreak of hostilities, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by over 90 per cent. Under normal conditions, the vital waterway handles about 35 per cent of global crude oil shipments—roughly 20 million barrels daily—alongside 30 per cent of global fertilizer trade and about 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas flows.

The disruption has created what Torero described as a “double shock” for farmers, driven by surging fertilizer and fuel costs—both essential inputs for agricultural production.

He warned that African countries heavily reliant on fertilizer imports are particularly exposed, although major agricultural exporters such as Argentina, Brazil, and the United States will also feel the impact.

Torero explained that if the crisis is resolved soon, markets could stabilise within three months. However, a prolonged disruption would significantly worsen the outlook.

“A blockade lasting three months will affect farmers globally and could have serious implications for the next planting season,” he said, adding that reduced crop yields and shifts in production patterns may follow.

Rising oil prices could also intensify competition from the biofuel sector. While this might benefit producers, it would likely drive up food prices, placing additional strain on consumers.

To cushion the impact, Torero called for immediate measures, including the use of alternative shipping routes and emergency financial support for import-dependent nations ahead of planting seasons.

He also urged countries to adopt medium- and long-term strategies such as diversifying fertilizer sources, strengthening regional reserves, avoiding export restrictions, and investing in resilient food systems.

“Food systems must be treated with the same strategic importance as energy and transport sectors,” he said, stressing the need for sustained investment to reduce vulnerability to such shocks.