Why Some Legislators May Not Be Re-Elected In 2027

Some federal legislators would love to return in 2027 but may not be re-elected. Our correspondents, FELIX IGBEKOYI, OKEM MBAH, ACHOR ABIMAJE, ABU NMODU, AZA MSUE, INIOBONG EKPONTA, FEMI OYEWESO and NNAMDI MBAWIKE, observe obstacles that might hinder their re-election

In Delta, as activities towards the 2007 general election intensify across the state, the chances of Senator Ned Nwoko, representing the Delta North senatorial district, returning to the upper chamber in 2027 are uncertain.

If merit and performance are considered, his chances are bright, but the present political arrangement in the state, especially in the senatorial district, and the role of Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, former governor of the state, do not guarantee a smooth ride for him.

Since Senator Okowa, rumoured to be eyeing the seat in 2027, decamped from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), it has been tormenting Senator Munir Nwoko, as the party structure is said to have been hijacked by Senator Okowa.

As at the last count, Senator Nwoko boycotted the last APC state Congress owing to the excuse that the congress was compromised from the ward level through the local government to the state level, ostensibly joining forces with the likes of Senator Ovie Omo-Agege, Barr Chiedu Ebie (NDDC chairman), Erhateke Ibori-Suenu, a member of the House of Representatives and others.

The youths of the Ndokwa ethnic group, under the aegis of the Ndokwa Youth Leaders Assembly (NYLA), have asked former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa to heed calls from various quarters to run in the 2027 Delta North Senate race.

Describing Senator Okowa as “the most credible, unifying and development-rooted figure” capable of giving the Delta North Senatorial District the strategic and high-impact representation in the National Assembly, the group expressed its readiness to purchase the application forms for Okowa when he declares his interest to contest.

In a press statement at the end of its meeting at Ogume in Ndokwa West local government area, the NYLA said the appeal was advised by what it described as Okowa’s “tested competence, administrative maturity, bridge-building capacity, and visible investment in human and infrastructural development across Delta North during the period he served as Delta State governor.”

The statement from the meeting presided over by the national president of the group, Comrade Enebeli Ernest Brown, noted that the Delta North Senatorial District “cannot afford another ceremonial occupier in the red chambers but must field a results-driven negotiator who commands respect and maintains responsibility at home.”

The Ndokwa youth leaders appealed to “traditional rulers, opinion builders, professional bodies, women groups and political blocs in Delta North senatorial district to ‘rise above ethnic tendencies’ and endorse a candidate in Sen (Dr) Ifeanyi Okowa, whose competence and credibility are already verifiable.”

The NYLA revealed plans to commence what it termed “a structured signature-mobilisation tour across the district” to persuade and “formally draft Dr Okowa into the race.”

The group said that its decision to offset the cost of purchasing nomination and expression of interest forms for Dr Okowa was “a people-driven initiative aimed at promoting transparency and accountability in governance through quality representation in the National Assembly.

However, all hope is not lost, as Senator Nwoko has continued to demonstrate why he is qualified for a second term through credible administration and empowerment, while he continues to strategise to retain his position.

Similarly, the political atmosphere in Bayelsa West Senatorial District is gradually heating up ahead of the 2027 general elections, as emerging interests, zoning arrangements, and personal ambitions begin to shape the conversation about who will represent the district in the Senate.

Recently, the member representing Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, Hon. Fred Agbedi, openly declared his intention to contest the Bayelsa West senatorial seat in 2027.

His declaration has sparked debate within political circles, especially as the current senator, former Bayelsa State governor, Senator Seriake Dickson, is widely believed to be considering a return to the Senate for a third term.

Although Dickson has not formally declared his intention, political observers are of the opinion that his recent political moves, including his exit from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and alignment with the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), a new party he leads, suggest that he may still be interested in retaining the seat.

Speaking on Rhythm 94.7 Yenagoa’s news and current affairs programme, Viewpoint, Agbedi, who is a member of the PDP, confirmed his ambition, saying he had long desired to represent the district in the Senate.

“I will be contesting for the Senate. Even in the last election, I opted for the Senate, but for the governor’s intervention. So this time I am seeking the ticket for my party to run for the Senatorial seat, and I tell you by the grace of God, that ticket is going to be a sure bet,” he said.

Agbedi added that he would rely on his performance in the House of Representatives to convince the people of Bayelsa West to support his aspiration.

However, the contest may not be an easy sail. Political analysts are of the view that one of the major obstacles could be the long-standing rotational arrangement between the two local government areas that make up the senatorial district – Sagbama and Ekeremor.

Under the informal arrangement, when one local government produces a senator, the other produces a member of the House of Representatives. This rotation has helped maintain political balance within the district over the years.

Convener of the South South Reawakening Group (SSRG), Joseph Ambakederimo, expressed the belief that the existing arrangement should be respected to avoid unnecessary political tension.

“For the benefit of the Bayelsa people who may not understand what is happening, we have the Ekeremor local government area and Sagbama local government area, which is my constituency. Traditionally, when one local government produces a senator, the other produces a member of the House of Representatives.

Ambakederimo argued that the Senate seat should now return to Ekeremor in line with the rotational understanding and also declared his support for Agbedi’s ambition, or that of any other person from Ekeremor, stressing that fresh leadership should be encouraged.

“For me, if Fred Agbedi or any other person from Bayelsa West, particularly from Ekeremor, decides to run, I will support that person. Senator Dickson should go and rest. Let us not create unnecessary crises.”

Ambakederimo also questioned the argument that Dickson should continue in the Senate because of his vocal presence in national debates.

“Yes, he is vocal, we all know that. Anyone can speak loudly and passionately in public, but what matters is what happens afterwards,” he added.

However, not everyone shares this view. Some political stakeholders believe Dickson’s experience and national influence make him the most suitable candidate to continue representing the district.

Former spokesman of the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) Worldwide from Ekeremor local government area, Ebilade Ekerefe, said Dickson’s political stature gives Bayelsa West an advantage at the national level.

He said, “Dickson has democratic credentials, and he is the former governor of our state. He is the most decorated politician from Bayelsa West, and everybody wants their own to grow nationally.

Ekerefe also dismissed the argument that zoning alone should determine who occupies the seat, adding that Dickson’s contributions to the development of Ekeremor during his time as governor should also be considered.

“If they don’t change the approach and strategy, it will not work. Politicians should not hide under the guise of zoning to advance their own agenda.”

Political observers say the coming months may determine how the contest eventually unfolds. If Dickson decides to run again, the senatorial race in Bayelsa West could become one of the most competitive political battles in the state ahead of the 2027 elections.

In Plateau, Senator Pam Dachungyang, a placeholder, emerged as the senator representing Plateau North through a rerun election held on February 3, 2024.

He won the election under the Action Democratic Party (ADP) banner, securing 122,442 votes, and was declared the winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Interestingly, Dachungyang’s path to the senate was supported by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) after their party was excluded from the ballot.

The PDP’s original candidate, Simon Mwadkwon, the Senate minority leader who initially won the seat, was sacked by an Appeal Court, paving the way for the rerun election

Dachungyang, a journalist, was brought in to speak on behalf of the sacked PDP senator, who is also the former minority leader in the National Assembly.

However, PDP is currently in disarray in the state as the Governor Barr Caleb Mutfwang, who supported the emergence of Senator Pam Dachungyang, has dumped the party for the APC.

Dachungyang also dumped his party, ADP, for APC.

He may not scale through the primary election to stage a comeback to the national assembly.

As elected political office holders are scheming to return, some politicians may use some odds against them to stop their return in Niger state.

The Senator representing Niger South, Senator Peter Ndalikali of the PDP, may find it difficult to prosecute his reelection bid under the party’s platform, owing to the crisis rocking the party at the National level.

Besides that, the fact that the incumbent Governor is from Niger South makes it an arduous task for any other party to win the senate seat from the area, as Governor Mohammed Umaru Bago would try to solidify the party’s popularity in the zone.

Also, the member representing Chanchaga federal constituency, Hon Abubakar Abdul Buba Abubakar of PDP, may find it difficult too for the same reason as the senator, except he decides to decamp to the ruling APC. Political pundits, however, believe that even if he decamps from the long list of aspirants in the APC, it will make it difficult for him to secure the party’s ticket.

The same may befall Hon Joshua Gana, who represents Edati, Lavun and Mokwa federal constituency, because of the crisis in PDP at the national level

Similarly, opponents of the member representing Kontagora, Mariga, Mashegu and Wushishi federal constituency, Hon Abdullahi Idris of APC, believe that because he has spent four terms in the house, it was about time he stepped aside.

Most of such opponents were from Mashegu local government area of the constituency, who posited that it was their turn, arguing that the area has not produced a member since the inception of this dispensation in 1999.

In Kaduna State, many first-term federal legislators, especially those from opposition parties in the National Assembly seeking second terms, may not return in 2027.

Senators representing Kaduna Central Senatorial District, Lawal Adamu Usman, and Kaduna North Senatorial District, Khalid Mustapha, both won the 2023 elections on the platform of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Senator Usman, who recently resigned from the PDP, may find it difficult to win a second term. Also, Senator Mustapha will face a similar challenge of staging a comeback to the Senate.

Since the return of democracy in 1999 till date, no senator won second term in Kaduna central zone, while in Kaduna North zone, former governor Ahmed Makarfi managed to do two terms as a senator, though he won the second term in 2011 through court when Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) led by late President Muhammadu Buhari swept the ruling PDP then away in the zone.

According to political analysts, voters in the two zones of Kaduna Central and North do not stick with one political party.

Unlike Kaduna South senatorial zone voters, who stuck with PDP from 1999 to 2023, the majority of Kaduna North and Central zone voters prefer new opposition candidates to recycling, except the incumbent performs beyond a reasonable doubt.

Apart from that, Governor Uba Sani and his party, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) now working very hard to win the three zones as the Kaduna South senatorial zone seems to be heading towards APC due to the governor’s infrastructure drive in the zone and the defection of top political actors who recently dumped the PDP in the zone and joined the APC. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu established the Federal University in the Southern zone of Kaduna and appointed their son, Maj. Gen Christopher Musa as Defence Minister.

Also, the PDP national leadership crisis would affect the party’s outing in the state in 2027, unless the political gladiators put their house in order.

The member representing Jaba/Zangon Kataf federal constituency of the House of Representatives, Amos Gwamna Magaji, is also interested in a second term, but the people of Zangon Kataf are demanding that 2027 is their turn.

The youth presidents representing the Bajju, Atyap, Ikulu, Kamantan ethnic nationalities and Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU) youth wing, Zangon Kataf chapter, led by Comrade Ezekiel Samaila, recently warned that the zoning gentleman’s agreement, which states that the seat should rotate among the two local government areas, must be respected in 2027.

They further begged the Kaduna State governor, Uba Sani, to intervene in what they described as political injustice threatening the harmony and democratic stability of Zangon Kataf/Jaba federal constituency.

However, the new coalition, African Democratic Congress (ADC), led by former governor Nasir El-Rufai, will make inroads in 2027, especially in Kaduna North and Central zones, but may not match APC.

In Benue State, senators representing Benue North East, Emmanuel Udende and North West, Titus Zam, were elected on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), while Benue South, Abba Moro, was re-elected on the platform of the opposition People Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 general elections.

All three senators from Benue were seeking another term in 2027, but the road may not be as smooth as it was in the last elections.

In Benue North East and West, the two senators, Emmanuel Udende and Titus Zam, belong to the APC camp led by Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume.

Members of the House of Representatives interested in re-election, such as Philip Agbese of Ado/Ogbadibo/Okpokwu Federal constituency, Asema Achado, Gwer/Gwer West, Terseer Ugbor Kwande/Ushongu, among others, have pitched a tent with Akume’s camp and are not together with Governor Hyacinth Alia.

Pundits opined that, if Akume’s APC camp succeeds in cornering the party structure in Benue state, his loyalists may have hope of securing APC second-term tickets, but with Governor Alia in charge of the party executives both at the ward, local government areas and the state, it would be difficult for them to emerge as candidates to face voters in 2027 under APC.

It further observed that unless there was a genuine reconciliation and compromise by Governor Alia and Akume, it might be tough for them to survive, except they decamp to the opposition party.

In Benue South, Senator Abba Moro, who won election in 2019 under the PDP and replaced former Senate President, David Mark, is battling to secure a third term in 2027.

Political watchers said the PDP and Benue APC crisis, coupled with Senator David Mark’s ADC coalition influence in the zone, Senator Moro and other House of Representatives members eyeing another term on different platforms without the support of Senator Mark, will have a lot to contend with in the district as party primaries elections approach.

In Enugu, although the senator representing Enugu East Senatorial Zone in the National Assembly, Senator Kelvin Chukwu, would want to be re-elected, many of his constituents believe that some obstacles may hinder his return.

Some of his constituents who spoke with our correspondent claimed that the senator has fallen short of their expectations.

Kelvin replaced his elder brother, Oyibo Chukwu, as the candidate of the Labour Party for Enugu East Senatorial District in the 2023 general election, but Oyibo was brutally murdered in 2023 while he was campaigning for the election.

Angered by the suspected political assassination, constituents of Enugu East gave his younger brother sympathy votes.

But the constituents are regretting voting for Kelvin because he has not done much for them.

The constituents are unhappy that the only road leading to Amuri, his hometown, which he initiated, has been abandoned, and they have vowed to work against him in 2027.

At the time of filing this report, the senator’s number could not be reached for comments.

In Ogun State, one obvious federal lawmaker that may not be re-elected to the Red Chamber in the 2027 general election is Senator Gbenga Daniel, popularly known by admirers as “OGD”.

Daniel’s re-election may suffer a setback because of his strained relationship with the incumbent state governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, who is also keen to “retire” to the Senate after serving 8 years in office.

At present, Daniel, who himself served as the 2-term Ogun State governor between 2003 and 2011, is the Senator representing Ogun East Senatorial District on the APC platform. He was elected to the Senate in 2023 while still in the “good books” of the incumbent Governor Abiodun.

Meanwhile, as Abiodun’s tenure winds down, election posters and banners announcing the governor’s intention to run for the Senate in 2027 have flooded the streets of the Ogun East Senatorial district, putting the duo at loggerheads.

Ab initio, it is no longer hidden that the incumbent governor, Abiodun himself, is not favourably disposed to Daniel’s return to the Senate, and this was part of the political drama which played out during the last state congress of the APC held in Abeokuta, the state capital.

Obstacles that may hinder Daniel’s re-election to the Senate began in August last year, when the APC in his ward – Ward 4 of Sagamu local government area of the state – announced that it had imposed an “indefinite suspension” on the Senator over alleged anti-party activities.

The situation was compounded when, later, the State Working Committee (SWC) allegedly affirmed the suspension on the grounds that Daniel had refused to honour invitations to defend himself before an investigative panel and that his actions were deemed hostile to the party’s interests during the sittings of the Election Petition Tribunal.

Aside from the senator’s suspension, Daniel also did not participate in the APC State Congress held two weeks ago, while all other elected federal lawmakers of the party were in attendance. These, however, have clearly pointed out that all is not well between the incumbent governor, Abiodun, and Daniel.

Meanwhile, observers and political analysts are of the opinion that Daniel’s suspension on the grounds of anti-party activities was a political machination by the incumbent governor’s camp to pave the way for him to secure the APC ticket in 2027.

Aside from the observers and analysts, LEADERSHIP Weekend also recalled that APC stakeholders met in Sagamu and denied the ward’s suspension of Senator Daniel.

The stakeholders who met in Sagamu to condemn Senator Daniel’s suspension included: Steve Oliyide, the Senator’s media aide; Chief Yemi Oke (SAN); Rt. Hon. Remi Hassan, former deputy speaker of the Ogun State House Assembly; Gen. Olumuyiwa Okunowo (rtd); Giwa Niyi-Osoba; Korede Okusanya and Ronke Oduneye, among others.

These stakeholders, who represented Ogun East Senatorial District, all expressed support for Senator Daniel and described his suspension as “fake and unconstitutional.”

To further lend credence to the allegation that the purported suspension was a deliberate plot by the incumbent state governor, Abiodun, to remove Senator Daniel and pave the way for his own candidacy. Stakeholders at an Ogun East APC meeting further disclosed that the Senator was a registered APC member in Sagamu Ward 12, not in Ward 4 of the local government.

The party stakeholders, however, maintain that it is the national Secretariat of the APC that will save them from the alleged political intimidation before the 2027 general elections.

Similarly, some National Assembly (NASS) members (Senate/House of Representatives) of Akwa Ibom State extraction are battling the odds of zoning and non-performance in their reelection bids ahead of the polls, LEADERSHIP Weekend gathered in Uyo, the state capital.

Those affected, it was learnt, are battling for relevance and dangling carrots before key stakeholders and constituents in different zones, seeking their nod.

But while some are qualified based on performance, others, according to feelers, would be knocked out by zoning.

For instance, Rt. Hon. Unyime Idem (Oruk Anam/Ukanafun), who is battling to return for a third term at the Green Chamber, though he has reportedly performed well, is facing stiff opposition from the other local government area (Oruk Anam), the LGA of the federal constituency.

His constituents have said that he has demonstrated a high level of representation, through social empowerment in education, jobs, scholarships, fixing of social infrastructure – roads, solar energy and cash to stakeholders.

Idem has done creditably well in his representation. Due to his achievements, he has broken the second-term jinx, as the position had, over the years, rotated between Ukanafun LGA, where he hails from, and Oruk Anam LGA.

But now, it has to return to Oruk Anam. We can’t allow him to continue for three consecutive terms,” Obong Isaac, from Oruk Anam LGA, explained.

Another federal lawmaker battling for reelection is Senator Ekong Sampson, representing the Eket Senatorial District (Akwa Ibom South).

Checks across the 12 LGAs of the zone revealed that several aspirants are angling for the slot, armed with allegations of non-performance.

Principal actors opposing his return, our correspondent gathered, include the current commissioner for Works, Prof Eno Ibanga; the state government’s major road contractor, Engr Uwem Okoko; the APC state chairman, Obong Stephen Ntukekpo, among others.

But the former minister of Lands, Housing and Urban Development, Chief Nduese Essien, a former two terms lawmaker in the Green Chamber and leader of the Senatorial District Elders Forum, has warned against stopping his return, maintaining that his return as a ranking member would guarantee him the leeway into navigating the NASS politics to bring more dividends of democracy, thereby raising the bar of his representation.

The member representing Abak/Etim Ekpo/Ika federal constituency, Hon. Clement Jimbo, is also battling his return for a second term, with his constituents, across the three LGAs, regretting that they chose him over the immediate past lawmaker, Rt Hon. Aniekan Umanah, who was given a soft landing and compensated with the position of commissioner for Information, by Governor Umo Eno, after losing the 2023 return bid.

“Jimbo has disappointed us as his kinsmen and women in the Ediene community in Abak. If you go to Ibanang village, one of his communities in Ediene, Abak LGA, the village has been without constant light for years and common solar energy he can’t provide, not to mention fixing the community roads,” Nsikak Udo, a resident of Ibanang, lamented.

“I am a registered voter. There was a protest vote against his predecessor, Dr Aniekan Umanah, in the last election because of poor performance, but he can’t leverage that to provide effective representation. So, I can’t waste my vote again for him,” Abasiofiok Etukudoh, from Ika LGA, vowed.

In Benue State, senators representing Benue North East, Emmanuel Udende and North West, Titus Zam, were elected on the platform of the ruling APC, while Benue South, Abba Moro, was re-elected on the platform of the opposition PDP in the 2023 general elections.

All three senators from Benue are said to be seeking another term in 2027, but the road may not be as smooth as it was in the last elections.

For the Benue North East and West, the two senators, Emmanuel Udende and Titus Zam, belong to the camp of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume, while Benue southerners are playing ethnic cards, as the Igede are saying it is their turn to represent the zone at the Senate. As a matter of fact, some Idoma kinsmen are accusing the senator of underperformance and calling for a change of baton.

 

Members of the House of Representatives interested in re-election, Philip Agbese of Ado/Ogbadibo/Okpokwu Federal constituency, Asema Achado, Gwer/Gwer West, Terseer Ugbor Kwande/Ushongu, among others, have pitched their tents with Akume’s camp and are not together with Governor Hyacinth Alia.

 

Pundits opined that, if Akume’s APC camp succeeds in cornering the party structure in Benue State, his loyalists may have hope of securing APC second-term tickets, but with Governor Alia in charge of the party executives both at the ward, local government areas and the state, it would be difficult for them to emerge as candidates to face voters in 2027 under APC.

 

They further observed that unless there was genuine reconciliation and compromise by Governor Alia and Akume, it might be tough for them to scale through, and they might have to decamp to the opposition party.

 

In Benue South, Senator Moro, who won the 2019 election under the PDP and succeeded former Senate President David Mark, is battling to secure a third term in 2027.

 

Political watchers have said that, with the PDP and Benue APC crisis, coupled with Senator David Mark’s ADC coalition influence in the zone, Senator Moro and other House of Representatives members eyeing continuity on different platforms without the support of Senator Mark will have a lot to contend with in the district as party primaries approach. Only time will tell.