Petrol Sufficiency Falls 17% To 17.7 Days Despite Improved Domestic Refining

Nigeria’s petrol stock sufficiency declined to 17.7 days in April 2026 from 21.2 days recorded in March, according to the latest report released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), despite significant improvements in domestic refining output.

The regulator disclosed in its April Factsheet that Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, stock levels narrowed even as total daily supply rose to 44.4 million litres per day (MLD), up from 40.1 MLD recorded in March.

According to the report, domestic sources accounted for 40.7 MLD of total supply, representing 91.7 per cent of the volume supplied during the month, compared to 34.2 MLD in March. Imports, however, dropped sharply to 3.7 MLD from 5.9 MLD.

NMDPRA stated that Dangote Refinery supplied the entire domestic PMS volume of 40.7 MLD, while total refinery output stood at 53.6 MLD, including 17.1 MLD designated for export.

The regulator added that the refinery operated at near-100 per cent capacity utilisation for most of April, with closing stocks put at 10.6 MLD as of March 31.

However, petrol consumption surged by eight per cent during the period, rising to 51.1 million litres per day from 47.3 million litres recorded in March.

According to the factsheet released on Tuesday, the increase reflected higher volumes trucked into the domestic market amid sustained economic activity.

The report noted that demand outpaced total PMS supply for the month, which stood at 44.4 MLD, thereby contributing directly to the decline in stock sufficiency.

Further analysis showed that PMS stock sufficiency dropped to 17.7 days from 21.2 days, signalling reduced supply buffers despite increased domestic refining efforts.

Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, also recorded stronger consumption, rising to 17.3 MLD from 14.5 MLD in March, while stock sufficiency fell to 39 days from 55.4 days.

The report further indicated that state-owned refineries remained inactive during the period. Port Harcourt Refinery recorded zero AGO evacuation, while Warri and Kaduna refineries reported no production activity.

Modular refineries, including WalterSmith Refinery, Edo Refinery and Aradel Holdings, focused mainly on AGO production, collectively supplying 0.559 MLD domestically, with no PMS output recorded.

Demand Growth Continues

On consumption trends, NMDPRA stated that daily PMS demand reached 51.1 MLD in April, representing an eight per cent increase from March’s 47.3 MLD.

The agency explained that the increase was driven by higher trucking volumes into the domestic market.

The report noted that the surge in demand exceeded total monthly supply and contributed significantly to the decline in PMS sufficiency.

Other petroleum products also recorded increased demand pressures.

Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK) consumption rose to 2.5 MLD from 2.1 MLD, although stock sufficiency remained relatively strong at 70 days.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) consumption, however, declined slightly to 4.8 thousand tonnes per day (KTD) from 5.1 KTD, with sufficiency estimated at 13 days.

Crude Supply and Gas Performance

NMDPRA disclosed that crude oil receipts by domestic refineries stood at 0.612 million barrels per day (MBD) in April, slightly below the 0.674 MBD recorded in March.

However, total crude supplied to refineries rose significantly to 18.37 MBD, with domestic crude accounting for 17.96 MBD, while imported crude stood at 0.41 MBD.

Domestic gas supply also improved during the month, increasing to 5.142 billion standard cubic feet per day (Bscfd) from 4.888 Bscfd in March, including volumes supplied to Nigeria LNG (NLNG).

The report noted that NLNG Trains 1-6 operated at 89.20 per cent utilisation on a combined capacity of 3.500 Bscfd, while the Gbaran-Ubie facility exceeded design capacity, operating at 107.64 per cent.

Sectoral gas utilisation averaged 0.549 Bscfd for power generation, 0.671 Bscfd for commercial use, and 0.468 Bscfd for industrial activities.

Pipeline Projects Advance

NMDPRA also highlighted progress on major gas pipeline infrastructure projects across the country.

According to the report, the Aiteo-Kano-Kaduna (AKK) pipeline project reached 93.40 per cent completion, while the OB3 River Niger Crossing project achieved 93.88 per cent completion.

The ELPS Midline Compressor project also advanced to 94.45 per cent completion.

Indicative PMS pump prices averaged between N1,284 and N1,378 per litre across major cities during the month, based on the NFEM foreign exchange rate of N1,361.22 to the dollar.

Actual market averages ranged between N1,271 and N1,372 per litre, according to the report.

Meanwhile, Dated Brent crude settled at $120.55 per barrel during the period under review.

Key Performance Indicators

NMDPRA data showed that total PMS supply increased by 10.7 per cent to 44.4 MLD in April from 40.1 MLD in March.

Domestic PMS supply recorded a stronger 19 per cent increase to 40.7 MLD from 34.2 MLD, while consumption rose eight per cent to 51.1 MLD from 47.3 MLD.

These shifts contributed to a 17 per cent decline in PMS stock sufficiency to 17.7 days from 21.2 days.

AGO sufficiency declined even more sharply by 30 per cent to 39 days from 55.4 days, despite total crude supplied to refineries falling 12 per cent to 18.37 MBD from 20.92 MBD.

Domestic gas supply, however, improved by five per cent to 5.142 Bscfd from 4.888 Bscfd.

NMDPRA stated that the trends reflect Nigeria’s gradual transition towards reduced import dependence and stronger domestic refining capacity.