Nigeria Eyes Oil Output Increase On Better Fiscal Terms, Security

Given an established competitive fiscal framework, regulatory clarity, and a coordinated security approach that has reduced disruptions in producing areas, Nigeria has met the requirements to achieve 3 million barrels per day of oil production, as mandated by President Bola Tinubu.

“The work continues,” said Olu Verheijen, Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Energy,

“But the foundation has been laid for sustained growth, and the capital markets have delivered their verdict: Nigeria is once again the place to invest in African energy,” she remarked during a recent energy summit.

For nearly a decade, Nigeria watched from the sidelines as global energy capital flowed to other African nations.

Between 2014 and 2023, the country captured barely four per cent of Africa’s upstream Final Investment Decisions—a stunning underperformance for a nation with Africa’s largest proven oil reserves and the continent’s greatest natural gas endowment.

In just over two years, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has entirely reversed that trajectory.

The momentum continued into 2025 with the HI Non-Associated Gas project ($2 billion), and the pipeline extending through 2026 and beyond shows no signs of slowing.

The future investment pipeline includes the Ima NAG Project, HA Project, Bonga South West, Zaba Zaba, Owowo, Nwadoro, Bosi, Preowie, Nsiko, Usan, and Erha projects—representing more than $50 billion in potential upstream investment.

“At a time when global upstream investment was tightening, Nigeria reversed years of decline, emerging once again as a leading destination for energy capital in Africa,” Verheijen noted. “The result has been a renewed pipeline of over $10 billion in Final Investment Decisions, particularly in deep offshore and integrated gas, restoring Nigeria’s attractiveness to international oil companies in capital-intensive, long-cycle projects.”

Investment has translated directly into production growth. Between 2023 and 2026, Nigeria added 400,000 barrels per day of oil production, reaching 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025.

This represents the highest onshore production in twenty years—a testament to the effectiveness of the administration’s security directives and the successful transfer of onshore and shallow-water assets to capable indigenous operators.