2 Years After AfCFTA, Nigeria Has No Data To Show Tariff Benefits – LCCI

Two years after Nigeria began preferential trading under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), stakeholders have said the country cannot credibly quantify the commercial benefits of the agreement due to a lack of data, high production costs and persistent non-tariff barriers.

They noted that while trade with Africa has grown, there is no evidence that the growth is being driven by AfCFTA preferences.

Nigeria recorded $6.1 billion in non-oil export receipts in 2025, an 11.5 per cent increase from the $5.46 billion recorded in 2024, while export volumes rose from 7.29 million tonnes to 8.02 million tonnes, according to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC).

However, the challenge lies in determining how much of this export activity occurs under AfCFTA terms versus other trade arrangements, such as ECOWAS agreements or the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) regime.

Under AfCFTA, qualifying products can receive preferential tariff treatment if they satisfy the agreement’s rules of origin. The Nigeria AfCFTA Coordination Office said goods must be proven to originate in Africa before they can benefit from the scheme.

Nigeria’s first clearly documented shipment under AfCFTA preferential trade terms arrived at the Port of Mombasa, Kenya, in January 2025.

The shipment, comprising synthetic filaments produced by Lucky Fibres Limited, a subsidiary of Tolaram Group, was exported under AfCFTA preferential terms, according to the Nigeria AfCFTA Coordination Office.

Despite this milestone, comprehensive data on subsequent shipments remain limited. This gap complicates the evaluation of whether the agreement is effectively reducing export costs for Nigerian goods.

The director-general of Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry (LCCI), Dr Chinyere Almona, told LEADERSHIP that “an export to Africa is not automatically an AfCFTA export. Until the authorities disclose the consignments that presented AfCFTA certificates of origin and actually received tariff preferences, Nigeria cannot credibly quantify AfCFTA’s commercial impact.”

According to Almona, Nigeria launched preferential trade under the AfCFTA Guided Trade Initiative in July 2024 with about ten exporters shipping bags, smart cards, black soap, alcoholic bitters, shea butter, native starch, and sanitary ware to Egypt, Algeria, Uganda, Cameroon, and Kenya. Processed foods, including date powder, tigernut powder, and date syrup, followed.

However, she noted that there is still no comprehensive public record of subsequent shipments, participating companies or transaction values.

“The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) is the designated issuing authority for certificates of origin. About 10 exporters participated in the 2024 launch, but no public register currently shows the cumulative number of companies certified, certificates issued, products covered, or tariff preferences successfully claimed,” she said.

When contacted by LEADERSHIP, the AFTCTA Coordination Office said it would respond during the day.  LEADERSHIP also contacted the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) to obtain official AfFCTA data. However, they requested more time to provide the figures.

Citing the latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, Almona said Nigeria exported goods worth N27.02 trillion in Q2 2026, up 18.77 per cent year-on-year. Exports to Africa reached N6.65 trillion, representing 24.62 per cent of total exports, while exports to ECOWAS countries amounted to N3.75 trillion.

She stressed that the NBS figures do not indicate what proportion entered destination markets under AfCFTA preferential tariffs, ECOWAS arrangements, or regular tariff terms.

“This distinction matters as Nigeria is trading substantially with Africa, but the figures do not prove substantial AfCFTA utilisation,” she highlighted.

The LCCI DG expressed concern that “Nigeria’s exports to Africa remain heavily concentrated in hydrocarbons. In Q2 2026, crude oil, gas oil, aviation fuel, petrol, and urea accounted for 91.6 per cent of exports to Africa. Crude oil alone contributed N3.23 trillion, while gas oil, aviation fuel, and petrol contributed another N2.71 trillion.

“This means the headline growth in African exports is not yet evidence of broad-based industrial integration.”

Almona explained that “manufactured exports stood at only N393.03 billion nationally in Q2 2026, a sharp 51.1 per cent decline from Q2 2025, although N213.44 billion went to African markets. Agricultural exports also declined by 36.09 per cent year-on-year to N802.99 billion.”

On specific products, she said, “data show exports of cocoa beans, cocoa butter, processed agricultural products, and cement clinker, but there is no information on the tariff regime used. Cement clinker exports totalled N12.34 billion to Cameroon and N5.26 billion to Benin in Q2 2026, but there is no public evidence showing how much received AfCFTA preferences.”

She also cited the case of Dangote Cement, which recently reported that its cement clinker export to Cameroon was rejected due to the non-activation of certain AfCFTA protocols, urging all trade facilitation agencies to work with all relevant stakeholders to activate these protocols.

Weighing in, the director/CEO of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, also told LEADERSHIP that Nigeria’s progress under AfCFTA has been ‘incremental’ because the country is still struggling with competitiveness.

“Well, we have not done much in the area of the African Continental Free Trade Area. I think the progress so far has just been incremental. Trade is all about competitiveness,” Yusuf said.

He identified “the cost of production as the biggest constraint. The cost of production is still high, which is why most of our manufacturers find it difficult to compete outside Nigeria. That is also why many of them need protection from cheap imports, especially from Asia,”

According to Yusuf, key structural issues include the costs of power, energy, logistics, and funds. These are very critical. They affect practically all exportable products.

He acknowledged trade facilitation efforts by Customs, noting that “a lot of digital applications are now being used by Customs, and that should be commended. But structural factors affecting productivity still need urgent attention.

Highlighting non-tariff barriers as a major impediment, Almona said Nigerian exporters continue to face multiple inspections, uncertain standards, clearance delays, inadequate information and unexpected destination-country charges.

“In Kenya, a Nigerian processed-food consignment valued at $808 faced charges exceeding $600, more than 75 percent of its value,” she disclosed.

She called for a public corridor-level record of delays and charges at Seme, Mfum, and Jibiya and at destination ports in Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, saying that “otherwise, the barriers remain visible to businesses but invisible in official performance reports.”

Yusuf echoed this, saying, “Nigerian exporters have continued to complain, particularly in the sub-region. There are still a number of non-tariff barriers, including the imposition of various levies. There is something called a transit levy which is paid even by people who are supposed to be exempted from tariffs. These levies impede trade and make it difficult for goods to move freely.”

He stressed the need for stronger political commitment, saying that “what is also required is stronger political commitment from political leadership on the continent and within our sub-region, to ensure that whatever has been documented and agreed is actually implemented on the ground.

“The problem is that signing a protocol is one thing, but the lived experience of traders is often completely different.”

Almona said the Nigeria AfCFTA Coordination Office should begin tracking and publishing results, stating that “LCCI will henceforth call for a quarterly AfCFTA Utilisation Dashboard disclosing exporters, certificates, products, destinations, shipment values, tariff savings, rejected preferences, border delays, and resolved complaints. Nigeria already collects trade data; it must now publish the data required to measure AfCFTA performance.”

CPPE CEO, however, commended progress made with payments, adding that “we must commend the progress made with respect to payments. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is a platform supported by the African Export-Import Bank to facilitate payments. That is very good progress and very commendable.”

Almona said AfCFTA’s success must be measured by tariff savings, diversified manufactured exports, faster border clearance, and repeat orders.

Yusuf added, “we need to make trade under AfCFTA more inclusive and more convenient so that trade can flow properly. But for the structural issues that will enable our businesses to be more competitive, a lot still needs to be done.”