Nigeria’s Middle Class Has Disappeared – Duke

The Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) presidential candidate, Donald Duke, has anchored his 2027 presidential bid on what he describes as the urgency of rescuing Nigeria from worsening economic and social decline, saying the country is already exhibiting the characteristics of a failed state.

Duke said Tuesday in an interview that he decided to offer himself for the presidency because he could no longer remain on the sidelines watching poverty, unemployment, insecurity and economic contraction deepen while merely criticising successive governments.

“You get to a point in your life where you say, ‘Either I walk away, or I do something.’

“There is no guarantee that you will win. But I don’t want to look back and say that all these things happened and I did nothing,” he said.

The PRP candidate added that what he called the “urgency of now” was central to his decision to run, arguing that Nigeria could not safely endure another four years on its present trajectory.

“I talk about the urgency of now because I don’t think we can go on like this for another four years.”

Duke said his campaign would focus on the underlying issues rather than personalities, insisting that Nigerians should use the election to interrogate competing solutions to the economy, insecurity, poverty and unemployment.

“What I want to do is focus on those who aspire to lead this nation on addressing the issues that affect us and how we can resolve them.

“I talk about the options. I talk about the real issues. I don’t want to talk about personalities,” he said.

Duke said Nigeria’s security crisis could no longer be separated from the economy’s failure to create sufficient opportunities for its rapidly expanding population.

“If we don’t address these issues squarely and fundamentally, we’re already a failed state. There’s no question about it.

“Look at what is happening — banditry, terrorism, kidnapping and all sorts of conflicts. These are symptoms of a state that is unable, not only to properly articulate its challenges, but to deal with them,” he said.

He said the formal existence of government did not necessarily mean that a state was effectively discharging its responsibilities.

“What is the definition of a failed state? Fundamentally, it is a state that fails to meet its people’s aspirations.

“You may still have a government and institutions, but if the state cannot protect the people and provide the environment in which they can live productive lives, then it is failing them,” he said.

Duke added that a Nigerian who had been kidnapped would probably find little comfort in technical arguments over whether the country satisfied an academic definition of state failure.

“Talk to someone who has been kidnapped. That person does not need you to explain what a failed state is. His experience has already told him what failure of the state means,” he said.

The presidential candidate stated that one of the clearest indications of Nigeria’s economic deterioration was the virtual disappearance of a sustainable middle class.

“You have perhaps one per cent who are genuinely wealthy and then a huge number of people struggling around or below the poverty line.

“The so-called middle class does not really exist anymore. Many of those we call middle class are only surviving from day to day. Let there be one serious emergency, and they crumble.”

Duke said the economy was failing to generate businesses and jobs at anything close to the rate required to keep pace with the country’s expanding working-age population.

“Businesses are contracting. New ones are not springing up the way they should. At the same time, we are turning out graduates every year and adding more people to the working population, but there is no work for them to do.”

He argued that kidnapping and banditry could not be defeated sustainably without confronting the economic conditions that feed them.

“When it comes to banditry and kidnapping, poverty and unemployment are at the bottom of much of it.

“We keep reacting to these crises instead of asking what is producing them. We are too reactive in our governance. Governance is not just about today; it is about laying the foundation for tomorrow.”

Duke said a major question he wanted the presidential campaign to confront was whether Nigeria’s economy had grown sufficiently to carry its population.

He compared the country’s current fiscal capacity with the situation more than four decades ago.

He drew a comparison with crude oil output, saying:

“In 1980, Nigeria was producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil a day. Forty-six years later, we are producing around 1.7 million barrels, while our population has tripled.

“So you have to ask: has the economy expanded enough to carry the population? Clearly, it has not.”

For Duke, Nigeria’s population should ordinarily be a source of economic power rather than instability.

“Our numbers ought to be an asset. But a large population is an asset only when you can educate the people, employ them and make them productive.”

He warned that unless the government created the conditions for growth, more Nigerians with the means to leave would continue to emigrate, while those remaining at home would face worsening economic pressure.

Duke said his presidential ambition was also rooted in a personal decision made decades ago when he returned to Nigeria after studying and working in the United States.

“I had the opportunity in my twenties to remain in America. I went to school there and worked there for a while.

“But I voluntarily decided that was not where I wanted to be. I believe the Almighty put me in Nigeria for a reason. I believe in this country’s possibilities, and this is where I believe I should contribute.”

He said that same conviction took him into the Cross River governorship race in 1999 and had now brought him back into the contest for national leadership.

“I wanted to prove then that we were better than what we were putting forward. From experience, I know Nigeria can be a very successful nation,” he said.