Nigeria Private Sector Expands For 9th Straight Month As PMI Hits 55.7 in October

Nigeria’s private sector has remained in expansionary territory for the ninth consecutive month, with business conditions supported by improved customer demand and introduction of new products, Stanbic IBTC Bank has said.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moderated to 55.7 points in October 2026 from 56.4 in September, but continued to signal marked improvement in business conditions at the start of the fourth quarter. The PMI reading above 50.0 indicates expansion.

Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Muyiwa Oni, said the breakdown shows output and new orders were slightly weaker than levels seen in September, but panelists continue to cite improved customer demand and introduction of new products as key drivers driving improvement in business activities in recent months.

“Business conditions as measured by the headline PMI has remained in the expansionary territory for the ninth consecutive month, although it moderated to 55.7 points in October from 56.4 in September,” Oni stated.

According to the survey, companies recorded another rapid increase in new orders during October, with growth only slightly slower than September when it was the fastest since early-2022. Higher new orders and new product launches contributed to a further sharp rise in business activity, now up for 23 consecutive months. Output rose across all four monitored sectors.

Despite sharp increase in new orders, firms kept on top of workloads and reduced outstanding business for the third month running, with depletion at the largest pace since January. Lack of pressure on capacity meant staffing levels increased only slightly, at the slowest pace in three months, though job creation has been recorded since June 2025.

On pricing, Oni noted that output prices maintained their uptrend in line with continuous increase in fuel and transportation costs feeding into cost of production.

“Panelists also indicated that prices of building materials and food produce increased during the month. Staff costs also increased modestly during the month, linked to the need to encourage employees to take on more work as well as help them deal with higher living costs,” he said.

Purchase price inflation quickened to a four-month high, driving selling prices up at the sharpest pace in four months, though still below the peak seen earlier in the year following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

Looking ahead, Stanbic IBTC retained its growth outlook, saying given a likely stronger GDP growth print in Q3 2026 and H1 2026 actual growth outcome of 4.16 per cent year-on-year, the economy is likely to grow by 4.27 per cent year-on-year in 2026 and 4.65 per cent year-on-year thereafter in 2027.

Oni attributed the optimism to exchange rate stability and moderation in consumer prices which are seen to continue to support business planning, while government’s investment drive in key sectors should help support overall GDP growth.

The Bank estimated Agriculture will grow by 4.50 per cent Y-o-Y in 2026 versus 2.92 per cent in 2025, Manufacturing by 3.37 per cent versus 1.41 per cent, while Services GDP is likely to grow by 4.47 per cent Y-o-Y versus 4.14 per cent in 2025.