OPEC Forecasts 2027 Global Oil Demand To Hit 108.28mbpd

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged after a series of downgrades this year.

The Organization also made a further marginal cut to its outlook for Chinese consumption.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the OPEC forecasts global demand will grow by 180,000 barrels a day (b/d ) to 105.72mn b/d in 2026 and by 2.55 million b/d to 108.28mn b/d in 2027, both in line with its October assessment. 

The Organization’s 2026 demand growth projection is a fraction of the 1.4mn b/d it was forecasting before the US-Iran war began. Its outlook continues to assume that this year’s weak growth will give way to a sharp rebound in 2027.

The group now expects Chinese oil demand to fall by 70,000 b/d to 16.81mn b/d in 2026, a slightly steeper decline than it forecast last month. It continues to project a 470,000 b/d rebound in 2027.

Chinese consumption fell by 110,000 b/d on the year to 17.25mn b/d in September, as lower diesel and gasoline use outweighed stronger demand for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel, OPEC said.

The OPEC also kept its non-OPEC+ liquids supply growth forecasts unchanged at 640,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027. Output is forecast to average 54.84mn b/d this year and 55.45mn b/d next year.

Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina are expected to lead growth this year, partly offset by an 860,000 b/d decline in Qatar. Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina are forecast to be the main sources of growth in 2027.

US liquids supply growth is forecast to slow from 500,000 b/d this year to just 30,000 b/d in 2027. 

The Organization expects US crude and condensate production to fall by 110,000 b/d next year, but this is forecast to be more than offset by a 140,000 b/d increase in natural gas liquids output.

The OPEC does not forecast OPEC+ crude production, but publishes an average of estimates from secondary sources, including Argus. This shows OPEC+ crude output, including Mexico and the UAE, rose by 2.04mn b/d on the month to 41.23mn b/d in October, driven largely by increases from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

The UAE withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May this year, while Mexico is not bound by an Opec+ production quota.

OPEC also pointed to a sharp decline in global oil inventories, which it estimates fell by 537mn bl from a February peak to 8.043bn bl at the end of September. Non-OECD inventories accounted for 294mn bl of the decline and OECD strategic reserves for 218mn bl.