ADC: Many Rivers To Cross

On the eve of the New Year, signs that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is emerging as the major opposition coalition appeared on the horizon, as the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr. Peter Obi, declared his intention to join the party to contest next year’s polls.  Obi’s decision to join the coalition is coming on the heels of several negotiations and permutations on how to achieve his presidential ambition that rammed into a cul-de-sac in 2023 after he was defeated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Obi has now joined the other presidential aspirants like former vice president Atiku Abubakar and former governor Rotimi Amaechi who declared their intentions to seek the presidential ticket of the ADC led by former Senate President David Mark.

Remaking Opposition

Opposition politicians have always argued that there are sponsored efforts by the incumbent government to frustrate the making of a strong coalition to wrest power from the APC in 2027. These politicians alleged that plans have been completed to divide opposition elements to render them weak to ensure a hitch-free triumph of Tinubu’s comeback bid. The controversy that birthed the unveiling of the ADC and the new leadership of the coalition platform is now a subject of legal fireworks in various courts.

As the Mark-led coalition attempts to salvage what it can of a party enmeshed in legal battles in determining the legality of its leadership, not many are predicting a smooth sail in resolving some of these matters. Much as there exists a chance that the ADC may come out triumphant in its crisis, there are others who believe that the party is primarily inspired by power-thirsty politicians who had been starved of political power for many years and would spare nothing to chance to return to the corridors of power.  Understanding the nature of politics in Nigeria, premised on personal empowerment and show of power, diminishes prospects for a quick resolution of the trials confronting the ADC. The forces fighting to take control of the party would take a long while to resolve its many self-inflicted crises caused by politicians angling for political conquests.

Uninspired Opposition

Before the opposition coalition attains a firm position and is transmuted into a strong platform to wrest power next year, supporters of Obi, comprising members of the “Obidient Group,” are already threatening that without their political idol on the presidential ballot, the ADC should forget their votes. Supporters of the other aspirants, especially Atiku, are not taking such threats funny, as they consider it a grave insult to refer to their candidate as not the best among the group of ADC presidential aspirants.

For now, the politics of getting a strong candidate to confront Tinubu who is considered a master in swinging the political pendulum is a submarine exercise, with the brain box, former governor Nasir Ahmed el-Rufai, still enmeshed in plotting the way forward, ADC is now finding it extremely difficult to resolve its many crises that are proliferating on account of others unwilling to step down for a consensus candidate. Against the backdrop of incessant calls on the former vice president to step down for Peter Obi, a statement released by the Atiku Media office on Tuesday categorically declared that the former Customs officer has no intention to step down.

As it stands now, the prospects of getting a consensus for ADC have been grimly contracted. We don’t need a prophet to reveal that in the event of a primary election for the party’s presidential ticket, Atiku holds more aces than other aspirants. Having restated his determination not to be intimidated into stepping down for Obi, a clear insight of what is to be has now been unveiled of what is to come. If Obi loses the ticket of the ADC, his massive supporters, mainly social media activists, may throw their swashbuckling support in directing Obi to move into another party as they did, ahead of the 2023 polls.

Windy Path

Resolving ceaseless bickering in the opposition coalition is unattainable in Nigerian politics. When democratic leadership is skewed for selfish aggrandisement; those who struggle for power are incapable of coalescing forces for the common good. While the ADC continues to stew in its internal power struggles, other parties are not insulated from the selfishness of the political class. Former governor of Kano State and leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Sen Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is fighting the battle of his life to prevent the defection of Governor Yusuf Abba to the All Progressives Congress (APC).  Stories coming from the House Kwankwaso built are apathetic and reflective of the bumpy path that lies ahead in forming an opposition coalition in Nigeria.

There’s no reason why Nigerians should not hope for the best in improving the efficiency of governance. The inability of the political class to evolve an effective opposition platform is due to the mercantile nature of our politics that confers limitless privilege to winners. When those in power are free to possess obscene wealth and are made unaccountable for their vast ocean of prosperity, the circle is intermittently repeated. That is why when things seem changed; they remain unchanged in real life.

Just about a year to the next General Elections, the opposition has remained a quivering failure in coupling a strong platform to wrest power from the incumbent. Even when the opposition succeeds, the greed and the selfishness of politicians have remained the greatest threat to forming a strong opposition platform. Those plotting the defeat of the APC next year should now concentrate on putting their houses in order, as a house divided against itself cannot stand.