In every election cycle, the electorate in Nigeria was always bombarded with news of political endorsements from different groups, political parties and even socio-cultural groups, including but not limited to some individuals who believe they can pull a crowd for any candidate(s) of their choice.
Although, some people believe that once a particular section of the country or a group of people, including clerics, announced their support for any candidate, the candidate may not be far from the throne he is aspiring for.
Currently, in the political space of the country ahead of the forthcoming general elections, the same scenario is playing itself out again. Nothing has changed. Many individuals and groups have come up with their endorsements and counter-endorsements.
On Sunday last week, the candidate of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress(APC) Bola Tinubu rushed down to some leaders of Afenifere in Akure, the Ondo State capital to get their endorsement.
The leaders of Afenifere who were from the six South West State including Kwara and Kogi, equally gave their endorsement at the country home of the group’s foremost leader, Pa Reuben Fasonranti, after a brief meeting with Tinubu.
Although Tinubu said he came to present his Action Plan on how to reposition the country to greatness to leaders of Afenifere, it was gathered from speakers during the meeting that it was a well-planned event.
At that meeting on the sabbath day include Retired Methodist Bishop, Archbishop Ayo Ladigbolu, Chief Arogbofa, Chief Pius Akinyelure, Professor Isaac Adewole, Chief Olu Falae, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, General Alani Akinrinade, General Olu Bajowa, Mr Sola Iji, Dr Kunle Olajide, General Secretary of Yoruba Council of Elders, Senator Cornelius Adebayo, Senator Iyiola Omisore, Chief Bisi Akande, Dare Babarinsa, Chief Pius Akinyelure, Deputy governor of Oyo State, Bayo Lawal who represented Governor Seyi Makinde.
Others were Chief Segun Adesegun, representing former Governor Segun Osoba, Senator Tony Adefuye, Senator Dayo Adeyeye, State leaders of Afenifere and many others.
Addressing the gathering, the APC presidential candidate asked the Yoruba leaders to appreciate President Muhammadu Buhari and some APC Northern governors and leaders for the support they gave him during the party’s primary election.
Recalling his earlier visit to Pa Fasoranti on March 4 this year while he was on nationwide consultation before the APC primaries, Tinubu said he promised the Afenifere leader he would come back after winning the APC ticket.
“The North proved to me Nigeria can survive its unity. Some people want President Muhammadu Buhari to announce someone but the president said No. He insisted the process must go on democratically. The president said anyone that would mess up the APC process would see the other side of his eyes. He remained upright and saw the process to the end.
“Northern APC Governors resolved that the Presidency must go to the South and especially South West. Governor Nasir El-Rufai, Abdullahi Ganduje and others supported me to the end. The battle was tough and at a point, I was in doubt. There were many rumours and I became confused about what to believe.”
Still speaking on President Buhari’s forthrightness and affirmation of his full support to make sure he wins the election, Tinubu said: “President Buhari told me I promoted his name with the way I won the primary election because the process was clean and transparent and nobody can accuse him of manipulating the process.”
Welcoming Tinubu and his entourage, general secretary of Afenifere, Chief Sehinde Arogbofa, charged him to be a leader who will unite Nigeria and work for the progress and development of the country.
According to Arogbofa, “You are not just a Yoruba man but a Nigerian. When you become president, consider Nigeria in all you do but never forget home. Our demands are what you know already. Restructuring, security and fixing the economy. Our country is no longer safe. We want state police so that the country will be safe.”
Deputy Governor of Ondo State, Hon. Lucky Aiyedatiwa, who received Tinubu and his delegation on behalf of Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu said the “Ondo State people are Afenifere and will support Tinubu to win. Asiwaju has the reach, the competence to lead Nigeria,” the Deputy Governor said.
In his remark, Ekiti State Governor Biodun Oyebanji assured the Yoruba leaders that all the governors of South West and Ekiti people are solidly behind Tinubu.
“We are happy to receive our leader, Asiwaju Tinubu, today. I want to assure him and our fathers that we will support him to the end.
Former secretary to the government of the federation, Chief Olu Falae, charged the APC presidential flag bearer to fix the economy. Falae decried the falling value of the Naira, adding that he used all his life to serve Nigeria and in his old age does not want all he used his life for to be wasted.
“When you become president, please work to fix this country. We are here to offer advice. I am old and no longer looking for a job. We need to fix security and fix our economy. Our naira is almost becoming useless and will soon become N1000 to a dollar. We must change that. I know your ability. We will always be here to support and I wish you well. We will be here when you bring the trophy home by the grace of God.”
The Ondo endorsement however sparked a fresh controversy within Afenifere.
Before last Sunday’s endorsement, the Pa Ayo Adebanjo led Afenifere had endorsed the presidential standard-bearer of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi.
Fasoranti was the leader of the group, but because of age, he gave the mantle to his deputy, Adebanjo.
Reacting to the Akure event, Adebanjo insisted that Afenifere under his leadership endorsed Obi based on national interest. He added that it remains sacrosanct and was in line with the ideological and equitable principles of the group.
Adebanjo said, the decision to support Obi was in line with that of the defunct Action Group (AG), which upheld strong advocacy for federalism as the best form of government to give the federating units the requisite atmosphere to thrive and peacefully compete among themselves for the ultimate development of the country.
Adebanjo insisted that Afenifere was known for its social welfarist ideology of the defunct Action Group founded by the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, noting that backing of Obi, who hails from the South East as the next president of Nigeria, was Afenifere’s modest contribution to shaping Nigeria into a federation, where no person or ethnic nationality is oppressed.
He recalled that Afenifere had insisted and still advocated restructuring in the countdown to the 2023 general election, and long before the parties conducted their conventions to pick their officers and candidates.
Adebanjo argued that it was based on the quest for peace, equity and inclusiveness that a Yoruba and Southerner in the person of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo took the first turn at the zoning arrangement in 1999, became the president, saying the sitting President, Muhammadu Buhari, is a Fulani from North West “and by the zoning arrangement that has governed Nigeria since 1999, power is supposed to return to the South imminently.
“We cannot continue to demand that the Igbo people remain in Nigeria, while we at the same time continue to be brutally marginalized and exclude them from the power dynamics. Peter Obi is a person of Igbo extraction whom Afenifere has decided to support and back, he is the man we trust to restructure the country back to federalism upon the assumption of office.
“We will not compromise this principle of justice, equity and inclusiveness because one of our own, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is a front-line candidate,” Chief Adebanjo.
However, while some analysts agree with Adebanjo’s reason for endorsing Obi, others argue that it was difficult for Fasonrant’s camp to have abandoned their own son.
But this is not the first time Afenifere would be endorsing candidates. But how effective such endorsements have been in the past is another matter.
The association was front and center in the June 1993 presidential election victory of Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola. With the truncating of Abiola’s mandate, the agitation to have a president of South West extraction became expedient across the country.
In 1999, Afenifere went through a crisis before picking a candidate to represent the Alliance for Democracy (AD) before the 1999 general elections.
Late Chief Bola Ige, who was the next in command to Chief Abraham Adesanya, was interested in emerging the party’s flag bearer. He felt since he was deputy to the leader, he should ordinarily, without any sweat, get the ticket.
Instead, the party picked Chief Oluyemi Falae to fly the flag of the then Alliance for Democracy (AD/APP). This led to an upset within the group.
Afenifere endorsed Falae. Afenifere rallied the bulk of South West votes and installed all the governors of the region. But the votes were not enough to make Falae emerge president then.
Falae lost the election to the former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, another Yoruba son.
In 2003, the group threw its weight behind Obasanjo tto get his second term in office as the president of the country since they didn’t support him in the first term.
Obasanjo, who contested against Gen Muhammadu Buhari, who is incumbent president, won the election. But the AD lost five governors in that election to the then-ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
All the governors in the Southwest including, Niyi Adebayo of Ekiti State, Chief Adebayo Adefarati of Ondo State, Chief Bisi Akande of Osun State, Chief Lam Adesina of Oyo State and Chief Segun Osoba of Ogun State all lost their seats to the then candidates of PDP. Only Tinubu, as Lagos State governor, survived the political tsunami of the then ruling party.
In 2015, Afenifere supported former President Goodluck Jonathan because of restructuring. Jonathan however lost to Buhari.
In 2019, Afenifere supported PDP candidate Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who assured them that he will restructure the country if wins the election.
Atiku however lost to Buhari, allowing him to have his second term of four years. However, in the 2019 poll, Atiku didn’t secure the bulk of the South West votes. For instance, he managed to win with a margin of 30,000 votes in Ondo State.
Analysts, however, posit that, aside from the 2003 general election, there was no time Afenifere’s endorsed candidate won the election.
Looking ahead to the 2023 election, it remains unclear if Afenifere, beyond its moral suasion, has capacity to influence how voters will vote. How many South West governors can Afenifere control?
Some pundits argue that Afenifere’s endorsement might not translate to outright victory for the eventual winner, considering that it has no governors, senators or members of the House of Representatives or any political structure apart from their moral support.
With the current division within the rank and file of the group, it may be difficult for them to speak with one voice in the forthcoming election. The endorsement of two different candidates in the South West tells a tale of a divided house. How will the endorsement work for Tinubu and Obi is a matter of time.