AFEX Predicts Price Stabilisation For Staple Grain

AFEX has predicted price stabilisation for staple grain commodities like maize, soybean, paddy rice, and sorghum, amidst record food inflation in Nigeria.

This was revealed at the launch of the 2025 Annual Commodities Review & Outlook report; and Index methodology unveiling.

The report, which tracks the price and production performance of global and regional markets, alongside projections for the year ahead, provides valuable insights into the agricultural value chain, highlighting challenges and opportunities inherent in the market while providing an accurate forecast that potentially steers price and volumes for the coming season.

In Nigeria, the economy grappled with record-high inflation, which reached 34.8 per cent in December 2024, and a volatile exchange rate, coupled with challenges in the agricultural sector such as climate change, rising input costs, and low productivity.

The report said, “in 2024, we witnessed commodity prices rise by four per cent, compared to 2023, which saw a seven per cent decline in prices.

“Global production for Maize, a staple grain commodity, reached a record-breaking 1.13 billion metric tons in 2024, reflecting a six per cent year-on-year increase. This output put a downward pressure on maize prices, which fell by 25 per cent year-on-year.

“In contrast, maize prices in Nigeria rose by 92 per cent year-on-year and closed the year at approximately N660,000 per metric ton, with its highest peak in July where prices hit N908,000 per metric ton.”

The report projected that local prices are expected to moderate on the back of the government’s implementation of a 150-day import duty on maize, which will increase supply and eventually ease pressure on prices.

It added that, paddy rice, a staple consumption commodity, witnessed price growth of six per cent owing to India’s export restrictions, seasonal supply tightness, and the adverse impacts of El Niño on global rice production.  The report also anticipated that domestic Paddy rice prices are expected to rise by approximately 50 per cent year-on-year in 2025, despite the imposition of the 150-day import waiver.

Speaking, president/CEO AFEX Nigeria, Akinyinka Akintunde said, “as we confront record food inflation and macroeconomic pressures, this report provides critical insights to stabilise Nigeria’s agricultural value chain. By identifying pathways to mitigate climate risks, optimise input costs, and enhance productivity, it lays a foundation for resolving food insecurity and fostering sustainable growth in the sector.”

The event also featured the unveiling of the AFEX Commodities Index and the AFEX Export Index methodology, key indices that provide investors and market stakeholders with real-time prices of commodities and the export market.

Speaking on the updates, chief operating officer, AFEX Commodities Exchange, Oluwafunto Olasemo mentioned that, “these updates represent our unwavering commitment to driving much needed technology innovation that contributes to efficient value chains, while increasing transparency, and growth in Nigeria’s commodities ecosystem.”

He pointed out that, ‘With these tools, we are empowering stakeholders to make better informed decisions which ultimately unlocks new opportunities for commodities trading and investment.’