Africa’s Industrialization Drive Weakened By $102bn Trade Deficit With China, Expert Warns

Unless Africa looks inward to explore and develop her resources into finished goods for export, trade imbalance with industrially advanced economies would continue to remain at the deficit level.

A Senior Finance Expert, Brian Muloni, has therefore warned that the widening dependence on imported machinery, electronics and industrial equipment pose dangerous threat to Africa’s quest for economic independence, as the continent’s trade deficit with China climbed to a record $102.01 billion in 2025.

Muloni, a Nairobi, Kenya-based Senior Finance/ Business Partner, in an analytical report made available to our Correspondent on Wednesday, said Africa’s growing trade imbalance with China was not simply about the influx of cheap foreign goods, but a deeper problem of the continent’s inability to manufacture the equipment needed to drive its own industries.

“What China is selling to African markets is not primarily a wave of subsidised consumer products. It is, overwhelmingly, the machinery, electronics, and transport equipment that African economies cannot yet produce for themselves,” Muloni observed.

He said China exported goods worth $225.03 billion to Africa in 2025, representing a 25.8 per cent increase over the previous year, while the continent’s trade deficit with Beijing widened by 64.5 per cent to $102.01 billion.

The development, according to him has intensified concerns about Africa’s growing reliance on Chinese industrial products, particularly as the continent struggles to expand local manufacturing and reduce its dependence on imported production inputs.

According to Chinese customs data cited in Muloni’s analysis, electronic equipment accounted for the largest share of exports to Africa in 2025, valued at $67.83 billion, followed by transport equipment worth $42.86 billion, representing a 70.7 per cent increase, and textiles and apparel valued at $33.94 billion.
More significantly, intermediate goods accounted for approximately 45 per cent of the exports, capital goods 30 per cent and consumer goods only 25 per cent.

Interpreting the figures, Muloni argued that the nature of the imports presented a more serious economic concern than the popular narrative of cheap Chinese products flooding African markets.

“This is not a flood of cheap finished products. It is a flood of the tools of production,” he stated.

He explained that the distinction was important in assessing allegations that China was dumping subsidised products in African markets, noting that there was no direct evidence that the country was deliberately selling goods below production costs to target the continent.

Rather, he said China’s expanding exports reflected its enormous industrial capacity and search for alternative markets, with Africa providing a natural destination because of its growing population and infrastructure requirements.

The analysis also examined how the trade relationship affects individual African economies, identifying different levels of exposure and capacity to respond.

Nigeria imported a record $24.9 billion worth of goods from China in 2025, reversing three years of declining imports. Its leading imports included machinery valued at $3.12 billion, electrical equipment worth $1.94 billion and vehicles valued at $1.46 billion.

However, Muloni noted that Nigeria’s dependence on Chinese capital goods was complicated by its reliance on oil revenues and foreign exchange availability.

According to him, restrictions in access to foreign exchange between 2022 and 2024 contributed to declining imports, while improved liquidity following economic reforms supported their recovery in 2025.

South Africa, another major African market for Chinese manufactured goods, imported $23.57 billion worth of products during the year, including electronics valued at $6.07 billion, machinery worth $4.65 billion and vehicles worth $2.05 billion.
Its relatively stronger industrial base gives it greater capacity to negotiate trade arrangements and develop alternatives to imported products.

Kenya imported Chinese goods worth approximately $5.2 billion in 2025, up from $4.5 billion the previous year, with steel, electronics and heavy machinery accounting for a significant proportion.
Ghana, meanwhile, recorded an $8.71 billion trade deficit with China, importing more than four times the value of goods it exported to the Asian country.
Its major imports included machinery worth $1.75 billion, vehicles valued at $1.28 billion and electrical equipment worth $1 billion, while its exports to China consisted largely of crude oil and mineral ores.

Muloni observed that this arrangement reinforced an unequal trade structure in which African countries supplied raw materials to Chinese industries but depended on China for manufactured products and industrial equipment.

The pattern was also evident in Zimbabwe, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where mineral exports dominate trade with China, while manufactured goods and machinery flow into African markets.

Zimbabwe’s bilateral trade with China reached $4.41 billion in 2025, with Chinese imports including lithium concentrate, tobacco, chrome and ferrochrome.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, China accounted for about 35 per cent of imports, while exports to the Asian country were dominated by minerals used in battery and electronics production.
According to Muloni, the central weakness across these economies was their limited capacity to process natural resources and manufacture intermediate products before they entered international markets.

He warned that although importing machinery could support infrastructure development and industrial expansion, persistent trade deficits could restrict the financial resources available for further economic growth.

He further argued that South Africa had greater room to manoeuvre because of its deeper industrial base, while Nigeria’s exposure was heightened by foreign exchange vulnerabilities. Kenya and Ghana, on the other hand, were importing equipment needed for development while accumulating trade deficits.

For the other mineral-dependent economies, the challenge was to move beyond the export of raw materials towards domestic processing and industrial diversification.

Muloni maintained that Africa’s trade imbalance with China would remain difficult to reverse without deliberate efforts to strengthen local manufacturing and develop the capacity to produce industrial machinery and intermediate goods.

“Until African economies can make the machines they buy, the deficit will remain not because China is dumping, but because Africa is buying what it cannot build,” he concluded.