Airfare Uncertainty Looms As Aviation Fuel Price Rises By Over 144% To N2,200/Litre

Airlines and passengers in Nigeria’s aviation sector are facing renewed financial pressure as the price of aviation fuel, also known as Jet A-1, has surged past N2,200 per litre at some airports across the country.

The sharp increase, driven largely by rising global oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has pushed aviation fuel prices up by more than 144 per cent in Nigeria since the outbreak of the conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran.

Industry data shows that aviation fuel currently sells between N2,103 and N2,203 per litre, depending on location. While the product sells for about N2,103 in Lagos, prices are around N2,143 in Abuja and Port Harcourt, while Kano records the highest price at N2,203 per litre.

The latest figures indicate that aviation fuel prices have also risen by about 18.05 per cent in recent weeks, adding to airlines’ mounting operational costs.

The development is expected to trigger an increase in airfares, as Jet A-1 fuel accounts for about 35 per cent of airline operating costs globally.

According to the latest Jet Fuel Price Monitor released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global jet fuel prices have surged by nearly 83 percent over the past month, with average into-wing ATK prices rising to around $175 per barrel.

The spike has intensified cost pressures on airlines worldwide, squeezing profit margins and forcing carriers to reassess pricing strategies, fuel surcharges and route deployment.

Industry analysts note that aircraft operating costs, typically measured relative to Available Tonne Kilometres (ATKs), have also risen sharply as airlines grapple with elevated fuel expenses.

Experts warn that continued volatility in jet fuel prices could complicate airlines’ financial planning, as sudden price spikes leave little time to hedge fuel risks or adjust network operations.

The impact is already being felt among domestic carriers in Nigeria. Airlines are expected to raise ticket prices by 30-70 per cent to offset the surge in operational costs.

Key routes such as Lagos-Abuja may experience sharper increases, while last-minute bookings are likely to become more expensive.

Airlines may also introduce fuel surcharges to cushion the financial strain.

Operators could also respond by reducing flight frequencies, while less profitable routes may face suspension, potentially affecting connectivity to secondary destinations.

Cargo operations are equally expected to feel the pressure, as higher air freight costs could translate into increased prices for goods, particularly time-sensitive shipments.

Industry projections suggest that if the current trend persists, domestic airfares could climb to between N150,000 and N350,000 on major routes.

Already, checks on airline booking platforms show that one-way domestic tickets range from about N92,000 to N289,000, with fares likely to rise further during peak travel periods.

The development comes as many Nigerians are still grappling with high travel costs recorded during the last festive season, raising concerns that air travel could become increasingly unaffordable for a large segment of the population.

Analysts say improving local refining capacity could help stabilise fuel prices in the long term. However, global oil market dynamics continue to influence domestic aviation fuel supply.

Industry stakeholders note that even Nigeria’s major refining players, including the Dangote Refinery, as well as fuel importers, remain exposed to global crude price volatility.

Globally, organisations such as the International Air Transport Association continue to monitor jet fuel trends, warning that sustained increases could slow the aviation industry’s recovery.

Experts warn that unless stabilising measures are introduced, the surge in aviation fuel prices could further strain Nigeria’s aviation sector and make air travel increasingly expensive for passengers.