Al-Minuki’s Death May Spark Fresh Terror Threats, Nextier Warns

A Nigerian policy think tank, Nextier, has warned that the killing of notorious Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) commander, Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, may trigger fresh security threats across Nigeria’s North-East and the wider Lake Chad region despite recent counterterrorism gains recorded by Nigerian troops and their international partners.

The warning was contained in a new policy analysis titled, “Beyond the Strike: Assessing the Strategic Implications of the Killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.”

The report, authored by Senior Policy and Research Analyst at Nextier, Joshua Biem, and Managing Partner at Nextier, Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, stated that although the elimination of al-Minuki marked a significant tactical victory, it may not automatically translate into lasting peace in the region.

According to the report, al-Minuki, also known as Abu-Mainok, was reportedly killed on May 16, 2026, during a joint air-land operation carried out by Nigerian troops under Operation HADIN KAI and the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) in Metele, Borno State.

The operation was described by the Defence Headquarters as “the single most consequential counterterrorism outcome in the North East Theatre since the inception of Operation HADIN KAI.”

Nextier noted that al-Minuki was a senior figure within ISWAP and had become deeply embedded in the global ISIS structure following the disappearance of former ISWAP commander, Mamman Nur, in 2018.

The think tank said his death had disrupted the terrorist group’s financial and operational networks, especially as he reportedly coordinated funding flows across the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin.

However, the report warned that the development could intensify rivalry between ISWAP and Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), commonly known as Boko Haram.

According to the analysts, Boko Haram, under the leadership of Bakura Doro, had already regained territories in parts of the Lake Chad islands and could exploit ISWAP’s temporary weakness to launch fresh attacks.

The report cautioned that renewed clashes between the rival jihadist groups could result in increased attacks on civilians and further displacement of vulnerable communities in Borno State and neighbouring border areas.

It also raised concerns over the regional implications of the operation amid weakening multinational security cooperation in the Sahel.

The analysts noted that the withdrawal of Nigerien military forces from multinational operations had created operational gaps that extremist groups could exploit for recruitment, logistics and cross-border movement.

The report stressed that military victories alone would not end insurgency in Nigeria without addressing governance failures, poverty, unemployment and humanitarian crises that continue to fuel recruitment into armed groups.

“Military operations alone cannot defeat an insurgency,” the report stated, adding that insurgent groups such as ISWAP had gained influence partly by establishing alternative governance systems in neglected communities.

Nextier also warned against the politicisation of security operations ahead of the 2027 general elections, saying short-term political messaging could undermine long-term counterinsurgency efforts.

Among its recommendations, the organisation urged the Federal Government to institutionalise its counterterrorism partnership with the United States, strengthen intelligence-sharing mechanisms and intensify efforts to dismantle ISWAP’s financial networks.

It also called for the reinvigoration of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), enhanced protection for communities around Metele and Marte, and expanded investment in governance recovery and humanitarian support across the North-East.