Analysis: Iran-Israel War And The Effect On Nigeria

The beginning of the Israel-Iran war started on June 13, 2025, after a bomb blast from Israel, and the subsequent retaliation by Iran has not only created a new tempo of conflicts but a dimensional trend globally.

The war will affect Nigeria with a double-edged sword, one with a positive trend and the other with a negative malady.

The global price of crude oil will swing up, bringing revenue to the country. On the other hand, there will be a price surge with an inflationary spiral for domestic prices of diesel, petrol, and others.

In the interim, the government will gain from foreign exchange from the present benchmark of $75 per barrel, particularly if the crude oil price skyrockets to $90 per barrel or more.

Nigerian crude oil importers will pay more, especially Dangote Refinery, which imports about 54 per cent of its crude oil for production.

The global transportation of crude oil sales is about one-third of the way through Iran and/UAE, and the Persian Gulf will be terribly affected. In the long run, this will be subject to the vagaries of international politics.

There will be severe tension in global peace, serious disruptions in trade routes, and a surge in oil prices, coupled with shipping, in regional stability and global energy security, which eventually could trigger religious crises in Nigeria, particularly Northern Nigeria.

Nigeria’s socio-political terrain may be affected vis-à-vis the economic platform. The global stock market will undoubtedly be affected, and Nigeria is no exception.

The major malady will be an inflationary spiral, and the oil supply will be shortened. In this case, what would be gained in the short run would be wiped out in the long run if the war continues. All hands must be on deck for the swing and spiral of the war to avoid unmitigated catastrophes.

– Professor Tayo Bello, PhD, FCIArb, FCIB, FCS, is an adjunct professor at the University of Ibadan