Aviation Subsector Contracts 47.3% In Q1, Reversing 2025 Gains

Nigeria’s aviation subsector recorded its first contraction in nearly two years in Q1 2026, as the air transport industry’s output fell sharply and erased most of the gains from a strong 2025 recovery.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ Q1 2026 GDP report show air transport contracted 47.3 per cent year‑on‑year in nominal terms, reversing the 57.21 per cent expansion recorded in Q1 2025.

Nominal output from air transport dropped to N55.74 billion from N105.77 billion a year earlier — a fall of roughly N50.03 billion and one of the steepest reversals among transportation subsectors.

The decline ended seven consecutive quarters of nominal growth for aviation and followed a steady slowdown through 2025: 57.21 per cent (Q1), 30.60 per cent (Q2), 2.88 per cent (Q3) and 18.02 per cent (Q4), before moving into negative territory at the start of 2026.

The subsector’s share of nominal GDP also shrank to 0.05 per cent in Q1 2026, down from 0.11 per cent a year earlier. On a real basis (constant 2019 prices), aviation output fell 7.62 per cent year‑on‑year to N33.66 billion from N36.44 billion, widening the real contraction from the 0.81 per cent decline recorded in Q1 2025.

Despite the aviation slump, the broader transportation and storage sector remained in positive territory. The sector posted 6.51 per cent nominal growth in Q1 2026 and contributed 1.36 per cent to nominal GDP, though both figures are down from the comparable quarter in 2025 (53.56 per cent growth and 1.51 per cent contribution). In real terms, the sector expanded 7.41 per cent and accounted for 1.02 per cent of real GDP, a slight rise from 0.99 per cent a year earlier.

The data suggest that road logistics, courier services and water transport sustained overall sector growth, while aviation became the primary drag on transportation’s performance in Q1 2026.