Can Nigeria’s Projected Growth Add Up To 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is cautiously optimistic that a wave of fresh capital will flow into the country’s oil and gas sector, citing President Bola Tinubu’s investment-friendly reforms and executive orders.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Company, Bayo Ojulari, disclosed that the reforms were already unlocking significant capital inflows into Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, with Shell alone investing more than $7 billion in the past 18 months.

The NNPCL plans to intensify collaboration with its partners through year-end and into 2026 to ensure improved production performance, maximise infrastructure uptime, and maintain high facility maintenance standards across all our assets.”

NNPCL is set to increase oil production to 2 million barrels a day over the next two years, its executive vice president for upstream, Udy Ntia, said in November 2025.

By 2030, NNPCL will be pumping 3 million barrels daily, according to the official.

Nigeria has been pumping more crude and drilling more new wells than it has in years, thanks to reforms under President Bola Tinubu that are finally leading to more cash flowing into the upstream industry. Daily output of crude and condensate has climbed to between 1.7 million and 1.83 million barrels, while active rigs surged from 31 in January to 50 by July.

These projections are coming in the wake of global oil demand growth forecast to average 930,000 barrels a day (kb/d) in 2026, up from 850 kb/d in 2025, reflecting a normalisation of economic conditions after last year’s tariff turmoil and lower oil prices than a year ago.

A continued slowdown in gasoline gains will partially offset a recovery in petrochemical feedstocks demand. Non-OECD countries will once again account for all of the growth in 2026.

Global oil supply fell by 350 kb/d m-o-m to 107.4 mb/d in December, 1.6 mb/d below September’s record high.

A sharp rebound in Russian production partly offset lower output from Kazakhstan and a number of Middle Eastern OPEC producers. World oil supply is now projected to rise by 2.5 mb/d this year to 108.7 mb/d, following an increase of 3 mb/d in 2025. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.8 mb/d of the gains in 2025 and 1.3 mb/d in 2026.

On the back of ongoing reforms, Nigeria’s energy supply initiative is expanding significantly after Shell last week announced plans to invest up to US$20 billion in the Bonga South West oil project over time.

The announcement was made when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu received the Chief Executive Officer of Shell Companies, Mr Wael Sawan, and his delegation in Abuja.

During the meeting, Shell reaffirmed its commitment to Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, highlighting the Bonga South West project as a key part of its long-term investment strategy in deep-water operations. The project is expected to enhance crude oil production, support energy security, and generate economic benefits, including jobs and increased government revenue.

Tinubu also approved the gazetting of targeted, investment-linked incentives to support the proposed Bonga South West deep-offshore oil project by Shell and its partners.

The President also directed the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Mrs Olu Verheijen, to facilitate the gazette of the incentives in line with Nigeria’s existing legal and fiscal frameworks.

Tinubu said the incentives are disciplined, targeted, and globally competitive, designed to attract new capital without undermining government revenues. “These incentives are not blanket concessions,” the President stated. “They are ring-fenced and investment-linked, focused on new capital and incremental production, strong local content delivery, and in-country value addition.

“My expectation is clear: Bonga South West must reach a Final Investment Decision within the first term of this administration.”

President Tinubu emphasised that the Bonga South West project is strategic to Nigeria’s economy, with the potential to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs, generate significant foreign-exchange inflows, and deliver sustained government revenues over the life of the project. He added that the project would also deepen Nigerian participation in offshore engineering, fabrication, logistics, and energy services.

The President reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to policy stability, regulatory certainty, and speed, noting that these reforms are critical to restoring investor confidence and positioning Nigeria as a preferred destination for large-scale energy investment.