Economy: Analysts Optimistic Of Stronger H2

Economic analysts have projected a stronger outlook for Nigeria in the second half of 2025, buoyed by improved foreign exchange liquidity, rising oil production, and the impact of sustained reforms by the fiscal and monetary authorities.

In separate mid-year reports, analysts at Cordros Securities Limited and FSDH Research expressed optimism that the economy would consolidate gains recorded in the first half of the year, despite lingering macroeconomic challenges such as inflationary pressures and high interest rates.

According to analysts at Cordros Research, economic activities are expected to maintain a positive trajectory in H2-25, driven by a further improvement in the oil sector, recovery in consumer demand, and sustained implementation of government reforms.

In a H2 2025 outlook, titled “Navigating The Tailwinds”, Cordros projected that Nigeria’s real GDP growth will accelerate in the second half, anchored by gains in the non-oil sector, particularly services, as well as improved oil output which had remained constrained in previous quarters. “The expected completion of turnaround maintenance at key oil assets and the restoration of some shut-in production facilities will likely support higher crude output,” the analysts noted.

In the same vein, FSDH, in its macroeconomic update for H1 2025, forecasts a GDP growth of 3.4 per cent for the full year, aligning with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) revised projection. Analysts at the bank noted that “evidence of improving domestic output, relative forex stability, and anticipated moderation in inflation should provide a more stable macro backdrop in the second half.”

With the market showing signs of recovery following reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), including the reintroduction of a market-driven exchange rate regime and measures to boost dollar supply, analysts at Cordros said these interventions helped ease market volatility, with the naira trading more consistently in recent months.

“We believe the current forex reforms, if sustained and complemented by increased capital inflows and oil receipts, will further stabilise the currency and improve investor confidence,” Cordros stated.

With inflation down to 22.97 in May, the analysts are optimistic that prices may begin to decelerate further incentivizing the monetary policy makers to cut rates in coming months. FSDH said it expects headline inflation to average 25.6 per cent in 2025, as tapering in inflation to begin later in the second half of the year, particularly if exchange rate pressures subside and food supply improves.

According to FSDH analysts, if inflation continues its moderation in the coming months “the possibility of easing later in the year could emerge if inflation begins to trend downward,” adding that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to maintain a cautious stance pending clear evidence of sustained price moderation.

On the fiscal side, both reports praised ongoing tax reforms under the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee (NTPIC), describing them as essential for expanding revenue generation and reducing Nigeria’s dependence on oil income.

However, analysts raised caution on risks that could threaten the outlook, which include a resurgence of insecurity in oil-producing areas, continued inflationary pressures, and delays in reform implementation.

“There remains a need for the government to accelerate structural reforms and ensure policy consistency to maintain investor confidence and unlock the country’s full growth potential,” FSDH warned.