FG Records Revenue Shortfall Of N30trn In 2025

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has stated that the Federal Government experienced a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year.

According to the minister, out of the N40.8 trillion projection, only N10.7 trillion is likely to be realised at the end of the financial year.

Edun stated this when he appeared before the House of Representatives’ Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) on Tuesday.

He stated that the Federal Government had projected a revenue of N40.8 trillion for 2025 to fund the N54.9 trillion “budget of restoration,” aimed at securing peace and rebuilding prosperity.

Edun, however, told lawmakers that the current performance indicated that total revenue for the year is likely to end at about N10.7 trillion.

He attributed the shortfall mainly to weak oil and gas revenues, particularly from the Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) and Company Income Tax (CIT) of oil and gas companies, as well as underperforming subheadings.

“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7 trillion, compared to the N40.8 trillion projection,” Edun said.

He stated that while the government had also borrowed approximately N14.1 trillion, the combined inflows remained significantly below what was required to fund the 2025 budget fully.

Edun said despite the shortfall, the federal government has met key obligations through prudent treasury management.

He noted that salaries, statutory transfers, and domestic and foreign debt service had been paid as and when due through “skilful, imaginative and creative handling” of available resources.

The Minister stated that capital releases to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) in 2024 stood at N5.2 trillion out of a budgeted N7.1 trillion, representing a 73% performance, while total capital expenditure, including multilateral and bilateral projects, reached N11.1 trillion out of N13.7 trillion (84%).

Edun insisted that expenditure plans tied to oil revenues should remain flexible, cautioning against committing the government to obligations based on projections that had repeatedly failed to be realised.

“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” he said.

Additionally, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, stated that the MTEF and FSP were developed through broad consultations with government agencies, the private sector, civil society, and development partners.

Bagudu stated that while some members of the Economic Management Team advocated for conservative projections based on past performance, others proposed ambitious targets to encourage revenue agencies to enhance their performance.

He said for the 2026 budget, the government retained a target oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day but adopted a more cautious production assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day for revenue calculations.

Earlier, the Chairman of the Finance Committee, Hon. James Faleke, called for a critical analysis to guide against bloated budgets and to help make informed decisions based on current realities, moving the country forward.