The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) has unveiled its Annual Flood Outlook (AFO), indicating that 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) are at high risk of severe flooding in 2025.
Speaking at the official presentation of the 2025 AFO on Thursday in Abuja, the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Engr. Joseph Utsev, unveiled a detailed forecast highlighting 1,249 communities across 176 local government areas (LGAs) of the country as high-risk zones.
The states identified in the high-risk category include Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, FCT, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara.
“We are looking at 1,249 high-risk communities and 2,187 others facing moderate risks across 31 states and the FCT. Flooding remains one of the most destructive natural disasters, and proactive planning is non-negotiable,” he said.
The outlook, themed “Flood Resilience: Focusing on Communities Preparedness and Adaptation Strategies for Flood Management,” was a shift towards localised, seasonal forecasting that empowers local governments and communities to take early action.
According to the forecast, the high-risk periods have been divided into three phases: April–June: 657 communities in 52 LGAs, July–September: 544 communities in 142 LGAs, October–November: 484 communities in 56 LGAs.
Flash and urban flooding are expected in major cities such as Abuja, Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt, and Ibadan due to heavy rainfall and poor drainage systems. Also, coastal and riverine flooding is anticipated in states like Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, and Ondo as a result of rising sea levels and tidal surges.
To bolster national flood resilience, the minister announced new initiatives including National Flood Insurance Programme (pilot phase in Kogi and Jigawa) Integrated Climate Resilience Innovation Project, Niger Flood Project for improved water resource management and Annual Drought Outlook to support integrated planning
NIHSA Director General, Umar Ibrahim Muhammed, underscored the role of advanced technology and data in generating location-specific forecasts. He said the outlook includes sectoral risk assessments for health, agriculture, education, and infrastructure, offering actionable insights for disaster management.
