FMDA Projects April Inflation at 16.42% Amid Rising Food, Energy Costs

Ahead of the release of the April inflation figures by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Financial Market Dealers Association of Nigeria (FMDA) has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will rise to 16.42 per cent year-on-year in April 2026, driven by elevated food prices, higher transportation and production costs, and the lingering impact of the March fuel price shock.

In its Nigeria Inflation Forecast for April 2026, FMDA stated that inflationary pressures were expected to remain elevated during the month, although the pace of increase is likely to moderate compared to March.

According to the report, headline inflation on a month-on-month basis is projected to increase by 2.78 per cent in April, lower than the 4.18 per cent recorded in March.

The association attributed the expected rise in inflation to persistent increases in domestic food prices and sustained energy-related pressures.

FMDA noted that domestic food prices remained elevated in April in line with global commodity trends. Citing the World Bank food market survey, the report said the food price index rose to 3.69 in April from 3.60 in March, reflecting continued increases across major staples.

It added that yam prices rose by 3.98 per cent, while watermelon, maize, millet and sorghum also recorded moderate increases, indicating continued pressure on food inflation.

Energy costs also remained high despite a moderation in the pace of fuel price increases.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that average Premium Motor Spirit prices increased to N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, representing a 9.44 per cent increase.

FMDA, however, noted that this was significantly lower than the 37.35 per cent increase recorded in March, suggesting that while energy-related inflationary pressures persisted, the pace of fuel price acceleration softened.

The FMDA report noted that exchange rate developments provided some support for disinflation, with the naira appreciating by 1.36 per cent on average to N1,361.22 per dollar in April from N1,379.98 per dollar in March.

According to FMDA, the appreciation of the domestic currency could help moderate imported inflation pressures and offset part of the impact of higher global commodity prices.

On the global front, the association said commodity prices remained elevated in April due to higher energy costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

It noted that Brent crude oil rose to $120.4 per barrel in April from $103.7 per barrel in March, while the World Bank Energy Index increased to 146.4 points from 130.6 points.

Global food prices also extended their upward trend, with the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index rising by 1.6 per cent to 130.7 points in April, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

FMDA added that inflation pressures strengthened across major economies, with inflation in the United States rising to 3.8 per cent from 3.3 per cent, while the Euro Area increased to 3.0 per cent from 2.6 per cent.

Across Africa, Kenya’s inflation accelerated to 5.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, while Ghana’s inflation edged up to 3.4 per cent from 3.2 per cent.