GDP: Analysts Urge Nigeria To Deepen Diversification

Analysts at Abuja-based consulting firm Macrostrat have urged Nigeria to deepen economic diversification beyond crude oil by strengthening reforms in agriculture and industry to sustain growth and reduce vulnerability to global oil price shocks.

The firm made the call in comments posted on its Facebook page on Friday while reacting to Nigeria’s latest economic growth figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to the analysts, although Nigeria’s economy ended 2025 on a stronger note, long-term sustainability would depend on reducing dependence on oil revenues and expanding productive activities in other sectors.

Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.07 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, an improvement from the 3.76 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024.

Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 3.36 per cent, reflecting stronger economic momentum towards the end of the year.
Macrostrat said the improvement was largely driven by a rebound in crude oil production and continued resilience in the services sector.

Crude oil output averaged about 1.58 million barrels per day during the period, helping the oil sector expand by 6.79 per cent. Agriculture also showed stronger performance, growing by 4.00 per cent compared with 2.54 per cent in the previous year, while the services sector expanded by 4.15 per cent.

Despite the oil sector rebound, the firm noted that the non-oil economy remained a critical pillar of growth.

Non-oil activities grew by 3.99 per cent, while the services sector maintained its dominance, accounting for about 55.92 per cent of real GDP. Nigeria’s nominal GDP stood at ₦122.81 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 17.55 per cent increase year-on-year.

For the full year, the economy expanded by 3.87 per cent in real terms, up from the 3.38 per cent recorded in 2024. The overall size of the economy also grew significantly, reaching ₦441.5 trillion in 2025.

Macrostrat said the improved growth trajectory reflected better oil production dynamics, policy reforms that supported agricultural output, and strong domestic demand within the services sector.

The analysts noted that the combination of these factors helped strengthen macroeconomic momentum despite ongoing structural challenges.
However, they warned that relying heavily on oil for economic expansion could expose the country to global commodity price volatility.

According to the firm, Nigeria must deepen reforms aimed at boosting productivity in agriculture and expanding industrial capacity to ensure more stable and inclusive growth. “Sustaining growth above four per cent will require deeper diversification beyond oil,” the analysts said.